US handling of Chinese balloon row deflates Asian allies’ confidence

The frenzy and panic over such a minor threat leave question marks over how the US will respond to a more serious military crisis in Asia
The rapid breakdown in US-China dialogue also suggests allies such as Japan and South Korea would be left more vulnerable in case of conflict

Mohamed Zeeshan

Published: 1:00am, 20 Feb 2023

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The dispute over an alleged spy balloon that flew over the United States early this month has dominated world politics and brought several countries to the edge. Washington and its allies are on high alert over suspicions of Chinese surveillance. Meanwhile, Beijing has hit back with its own allegations.

Yet, arguably bigger than the dispute itself is that it went public at all. For months, China and the US had been trying to ratchet down tensions. Late last year, the two countries’ leaders met on the sidelines of the G20 Summit in Bali and prioritised dialogue. That cleared the way for a visit to China by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken.

The slow but cautious rapprochement had purpose. Chinese President Xi Jinping was preparing to move past zero-Covid restrictions and bring the Chinese economy back to normalcy. US President Joe Biden had domestic economic concerns to deal with. Issues such as climate change and post-pandemic recovery were begging for cooperation between the world’s two largest economies.

Then, the balloon appeared.

At first, the US was wary about overreacting. Washington did not immediately announce or protest against the intrusion of the balloon into US airspace. In a February 2 press briefing, the Pentagon did not mention China and said the balloon “does not present a military or physical threat to people on the ground.”

Then, politics took over and Republican politicians began to stoke outrage in Washington. North Dakota senator Kevin Cramer called it an “invasion”. South Carolina senator Tim Scott asked supporters if Biden had put Americans in danger by not shooting down the balloon immediately.

FBI special agents process material recovered from the alleged Chinese spy balloon on February 9, at the FBI laboratory in Quantico, Virginia. On February 10, the US blacklisted six Chinese entities it said were linked to Beijing’s aerospace programme. Photo: FBI via AP

Meanwhile, the White House said several such balloons had flown over the US during Donald Trump’s administration – which Trump denied.

But the most sobering takeaway is that, when faced even by a relatively benign crisis, the US and China were unable to find a path to diplomacy.

Owing not least to political pressure, Washington postponed Blinken’s visit and dramatically shot down the balloon over the Atlantic as the world watched.

After that, China rebuffed Washington’s outreach effort in protest. A request by US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin to speak to China’s Defence Minister Wei Fenghe over a special crisis hotline was refused, according to the Pentagon. In the absence of substantive dialogue, the dispute was allowed to play out in public, raising tensions further after more objects were shot down over North America.

Washington insiders point out that this isn’t the first time communication has broken down during a crisis. As an Associated Press report put it: “It’s been an experience that’s frustrated US commanders for decades, when it comes to getting their Chinese counterparts on a phone or video line.”

01:11

China says it has ‘no understanding’ of the flying objects US shot down

That is a far cry from how the US handled tensions with the Soviet Union during the Cold War. After the Cuban missile crisis, Moscow and Washington signed a hotline agreement that kept channels of communication open during major crises. The hotline was specially designed to prioritise written communication over verbal exchanges, so that responses could be more measured, and heated misunderstandings avoided.

The mechanism worked well. Through the Six Day War between Israel and its Arab neighbours in 1967, the India-Pakistan War of 1971, and several other conflagrations that involved US and Soviet interests, Moscow and Washington stayed in constant touch over the hotline and prevented catastrophic misunderstandings.

China-US ties: will spy balloon fallout bring ‘instability’ to Southeast Asia?

It’s unclear why the US-China hotline hasn’t worked quite as well. Some analysts told AP it’s because the Chinese political system “runs on slow deliberative consultation” between political leaders rather than real-time conversations between rival generals over a hotline. Others say Beijing sees the hotline as a way for the Americans to talk their way out of repercussions for provocation.

But the US too has a domestic problem on this front. For several years, through political rhetoric on exceptionalism, Washington has made a habit of not talking to rivals – treating diplomacy as a tool of privilege to be bestowed on friends. Disputes have led to a total breakdown in ties with everyone from Iran to North Korea, Cuba and Venezuela.

02:34

Chinese balloon row: Joe Biden says US-China relations have not taken a big hit

In the case of this month’s balloon incident, even if Biden had wanted to play down the crisis and contain tensions, it would have been politically impossible once the balloon made its way into public discourse.

This is a problem for both the US and its allies in Asia. For years, Washington’s allies in Asia have relied on US diplomacy to defuse tensions in the event of a confrontation with China – or for America’s military presence to deter such confrontations.

They have been left disappointed on both fronts this month. The frenzy and panic over a relatively minor threat leave question marks over how the US will respond to a more serious military crisis in Asia. And in the event of a crisis in Asia, such a rapid breakdown in dialogue between Beijing and Washington will leave countries such as Japan and South Korea far more vulnerable and compromised.

Owing to their geographical proximity, Washington’s Asian allies have always been more vulnerable to backlash from Beijing in a crisis. The absence of dialogue between the two superpowers only adds to their lack of security. That is the opposite of what Biden has been saying he wants to do.

Mohamed Zeeshan is a foreign affairs columnist and the author of Flying Blind: India’s Quest for Global Leadership