My Take | Europe united against Russia, divided over China
- Central European and Baltic states, the same ones China had tried to make friends with in the past decade, are drawing closer to the Anglo-American sphere while EU power brokers Germany and France are taking a more pragmatic stance with Beijing
Launched a decade ago, China’s economic charm offensive in central and eastern Europe (CEE) is now well and truly dead. As part of the European end of the Belt and Road Initiative, sometimes called the 16+ 1 or 17 + 1 Initiative, the war in Ukraine has put the last nail in its coffin. But well before the conflict, it was already on its last legs.
It may also not matter much to China, though. Beijing’s initial conception was to offer investment and infrastructure development and financing to expand influence and goodwill among the poorer and smaller European countries and European Union member states. That has not turned out well.
Paradoxically, it’s now France under Emmanuel Macron and Germany under Olaf Scholz – in other words, the leading European Union states – that have taken a softer line with China. In contrast, the CEE and Baltic nations have considerably hardened against Beijing in light of the Russian invasion and China’s proclaimed neutrality. There is, of course, the exception of Viktor Orban’s Hungary, which remains extremely close to Beijing. Indeed, while US President Joe Biden made his high-profile trip to Kyiv, Orban rolled out the red carpet for Wang Yi, China’s top diplomatic representative, during the latter’s visit.
Much was made of Wang’s trip to Russia, especially by a highly critical Western press. But besides Hungary and Russia, he was also invited to visit France and Italy. Just like Australia under Anthony Albanese, the leading EU countries have decided to rebuild at least some bridges with China.
Led by Poland, the CEE has been provoking the big EU countries. It has been called sarcastically by some observers as “the new Warsaw Pact”, though it should more accurately be called the reverse Warsaw Pact, as this one is aimed squarely at Russia by the former Soviet satellite states.
Rather than France or Germany, it’s Poland that has emerged as the most steadfast EU and Nato member at the forefront of the European resistance. Biden spent the 72 hours of his much-hyped visit not only in Kyiv, but also Warsaw, no doubt as a reward for President Andrzej Duda having led the European efforts, and in accepting 1.5 million Ukrainians fleeing the war. Besides military and diplomatic support, such as sending Leopard 2 tanks and other weapons to Ukraine, Poland has been rallying what has been called the “Bucharest Nine”, the small former Soviet satellites from the Baltic to the Black seas that have been most strategically exposed to Russia since the latter’s annexation of Crimea in 2014.