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Opinion | Philippines’ move towards US is unlikely to be the last twist in Manila’s foreign policy
- The Philippines has struck a series of agreements with the US, Japan and Australia, but the sustainability of this shift is far from assured
- The past two decades show the country can swing wildly between rival superpowers, depending on domestic political conditions and the ruling elite’s preferences
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“The problem is between China and us. If Americans come in, it’s bound to fail,” Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jnr said at the height of the Philippines presidential election last year, insisting on a neutral foreign policy amid rising geopolitical tensions in Asia.
Throughout the elections, Marcos warned that invoking the Philippines’ military alliance with the United States to protect the country’s sovereign rights in the South China Sea was a recipe for disaster. Instead, he advocated for dialogue, calling continued engagement with China as the only way to prevent an armed confrontation in the region.
As a presidential candidate, Marcos either downplayed the significance of the Philippine-US alliance or warned of the dangers of siding with one superpower against the other.
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Less than a year into his presidency, however, he has overseen nothing short of a renaissance in strategic relations with the US. As his cousin and Philippine Ambassador to the US Jose “Babe” Romualdez said, “I think our relationship with the United States is at its best right now.”
If anything, the Philippines under Marcos has emerged as the new darling of the West in recent months. Expanding defence cooperation with Washington has gone hand in hand with deepening military ties with fellow US allies Japan and Australia. The upshot is the gradual emergence of a new quadrilateral alliance, with the Philippines forming an essential component of a US-led “integrated deterrence” strategy against an ascendant China.
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US to gain expanded access to Philippine military bases in bid to counter China
US to gain expanded access to Philippine military bases in bid to counter China
Yet, the sustainability of the Philippines’ strategic shift is far from assured. Aside from domestic opposition from Beijing-friendly forces, including the president’s sister, Senator Maria Imelda “Imee” Marcos, there are some doubts over the West’s ability to help the Philippines rapidly develop its basic infrastructure or modernise its under-equipped armed forces.
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