Ukraine war: why China’s peace road map is the only one on the table

State information campaigns are driving escalation, as are increased losses on both sides
Normalisation will require neutral arbiters who highlight common ground, such as that offered by trade in key commodities. Currently, China is the sole remaining neutral superpower

Oleg Yanovsky

Published: 8:15am, 23 Mar 2023

Why you can trust SCMP

War is always a tragedy. Unfortunately, the war in Ukraine shows no signs of winding down. On the contrary, it is stuck in an escalatory spiral. Nato is supplying Ukraine with increasingly powerful weapons, including tanks, and Russia is not idly waiting for a Ukrainian offensive.

Against this backdrop, the sole remaining neutral superpower entered as peacemaker. China offered an “off-ramp” in its peace proposal, and President Xi Jinping reiterated some of the points in his op-ed in Rossiyskaya Gazeta on Monday. Russia’s government welcomed the road map. Western leaders have rejected it.

It is important to recall that early attempts at a settlement in March and April last year failed. Since then, successive attempts at peace have not achieved results due to a mutual lack of trust.

To understand why Beijing offered the only peace road map on the table, two factors driving escalation need to be considered, as do the risks of continuing down this path for China and Asia.

First, the information campaign that began in February 2022 makes normalisation a distant prospect. As most Western institutions – from governments to business and even academia – raced to break away from Russia, the prospect of finding common ground has been significantly reduced.

With streets and social media covered in Ukrainian flags, the political will needed to “explain away” the conflict becomes unattainable. Escalation remains the politically acceptable option and thus sets the direction.

As expected, the Ukrainian state apparatus is doing everything it can to rally support. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is pushing for increased military aid daily, using channels ranging from daily video statements to trying to address the Oscars. These efforts shore up allies’ commitment.

Throughout the conflict, Russia has been accused of disinformation campaigns. Moscow’s open information campaign has relied mostly on RT and Sputnik, which enjoy growing reach in Africa and Latin America. Messaging via state media has also been intense domestically, positioning the conflict as an increasingly existential struggle.

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The second factor driving escalation is the material aspect. As the level of sacrifice from both sides grows, peace becomes a more distant prospect. Just as in roulette, it’s easier to go “double or nothing” than to quit with a loss. Nato leaders are sending heavier weapons in the hope that tanks, planes or missiles will eventually snap the front line. Russia has responded in kind with long-range weaponry.

But the truth is that there are no magic weapons – more guns just cost more lives. Ukrainian soldiers have spoken of mounting losses. Russian losses are growing too but simple military arithmetic remains in Russia’s favour. This trend in the balance of power increases the likelihood of Russia’s military success.

The risk of further escalation is of earth-shattering proportions – Beijing understands this.

What is required for normalisation? To start with, neutral arbiters that provide common ground. Russian and US foreign ministers met in India, not in Munich. Beijing’s peace road map positions China as a moderator.

Secondly, trade in key commodities like grain creates some common ground which can be a starting point for interaction. Beijing stressed the importance of keeping supply chains open, avoiding unilateral restrictions, and facilitating grain exports.

Trade difficulties in 2022 created inflation that had a global impact just as recovery from Covid-19 was under way. Further escalation will guarantee more macroeconomic shocks.

Ukraine war, inflation put China’s GDP growth target at risk

Alas, so far, the world continues to slide down a slippery slope. Despite ongoing conventional support, the front line is stable, and sentiment in Russia mirrors Russian President Vladimir Putin’s statement last year that the army is “cracking [Nato weapons] like nuts”.

The current lack of trust between Russia and the West precludes compromises. Against this backdrop, trust between Russia and China is growing. Putin expressed gratitude to Beijing for its global stance in People’s Daily, reiterating that China and Russia are “building bridges” both literally and figuratively. Putin’s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov confirmed that seeking peace in Ukraine was on the meeting agenda.

China is a neutral peacemaker. Russia is willing to seek compromise in line with Beijing’s proposals. The vector of development has been set, now the ball is in the West’s court.

Oleg Yanovsky is a lecturer in the Department of Political Theory at Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO). His research focuses on the history of political thought and how political theory informs strategic policy decisions