China and the Philippines must ensure the US and South China Sea issues don’t come between them
- The Philippines should neither target China in its security cooperation with the US nor continue to dwell on the South China Sea arbitration case
- Instead, Beijing and Manila should negotiate joint oil and gas development, and strengthen a crisis management mechanism between the countries
The past decade has seen ups and downs in China-Philippines ties. In the second half of 2016, bilateral relations got back on the right track. At the beginning of this year, Chinese and Filipino leaders stressed that the two countries would further strengthen the relationship of comprehensive strategic cooperation. However, in maintaining the steady development of China-Philippines relations, there are two disturbing factors to consider.
The United States has also made it part of its South China Sea policy to cause a rift between China and the Philippines.
The US is planning joint patrols in the South China Sea with the Philippines, which Japan and Australia have been invited to join; it clearly intends to pursue a grey-zone strategy in the South China Sea. The Philippines seems to be a tool in this joint patrol plan, which would only widen its differences with China and trigger a crisis in the South China Sea.
In the interest of maintaining stable Sino-Philippine relations, we need to understand and properly address the following issues.
First, the US and the Philippines should not target China in their security cooperation. This is a prerequisite for the stable development of China-Philippine relations. The Philippines provides an important way for the US to shape China’s neighbouring environment through Washington’s strategy of “invest, align, compete”.
Why is Australia brandishing the China ‘threat’ when relations are warming?
If US-Philippine cooperation in the use of military bases and in military exercises should threaten China’s highest national interests, not only would China-Philippines relations be harmed, the South China Sea would also be destabilised.
Should the Philippines continue to talk up this issue and attempt to take practical actions, the South China Sea dilemma in China-Philippines relations will never be solved.
It would also set a precedent for other countries in dispute that seek oil and gas cooperation. On the basis of sufficient political confidence, the two governments can discuss specific issues such as applicable laws, cooperation models and benefit sharing.
Fourth, maritime law enforcement agencies in the two countries need to continue their cooperation and set up a hotline, to improve crisis management and forestall conflict at sea. China and the Philippines have explored some ways to manage issues in the waters of Huangyan Island, for example.
Earlier this year, the two sides agreed to set up a hotline between their respective foreign ministries to avoid an escalation of tensions. The hotline is now in operation. This mechanism should also be extended to the maritime law enforcement agencies and navies, to better manage crises at sea and in the air.
Finally, I would emphasise again that the South China Sea issue does not comprise the sum-total of relations between the two countries. Nor should it be a stumbling block to cooperation between China and the Philippines.
In the past six years, the two nations have conducted nearly 40 government-to-government cooperation projects in various fields. Two-way trade has doubled, and China is the Philippines’ top trading partner and source of imports.
In future, China and the Philippines need to be more proactive in managing crises and continue to deepen cooperation in four key areas – agriculture, infrastructure, energy, and people-to-people exchanges – to ensure the stable and long-term development of relations.
Wu Shicun is chairman of the board of the China-Southeast Asia Research Centre on the South China Sea and chairman of the Huayang Center for Maritime Cooperation and Ocean Governance