Opinion | Lessons from Thucydides as Pax Americana gives way to Pax Technologica

While much as been made of the ‘Thucydides trap’, the Greek historian’s insights are also useful in recognising how emotions fuel war

The US must be willing to end its role as the global cop and share power with the rest of the world to ensure prosperity and avoid catastrophe

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US Army soldiers wait to board their helicopter during a joint military drill between South Korea and the United States at Rodriguez Live Fire Complex in Pocheon, South Korea, on March 19. North Korea launched a short-range ballistic missile toward the sea on Sunday, its neighbours said, ramping up testing activities in response to US-South Korean military drills that it views as an invasion rehearsal. Photo: AP

Andrew Sheng

Published: 3:30am, 6 May 2023Updated: 7:51am, 6 May 2023

Corrected [7:49am, 6 May, 2023]

[7:49am, 6 May, 2023]
This article has been corrected to remove the reference to the date of Greek historian Thucydides' death.

The “Thucydides trap” is an idea popularised by Harvard scholar Graham Allison, who quoted ancient Greek historian Thucydides’ description of the Peloponnesian War as an inevitable clash between Athens as a rising power and Sparta as the incumbent.

Athens wanted to expand while Sparta was determined to contain it, and thus the war was fought directly or through proxies and allies. It stretched over 27 years, in between periods of peace or truces. Thucydides’ History of the Peloponnesian War ended abruptly, before the surrender of Athens in 404 BC.

Although it might seem plausible to apply the Sparta-Athens analogy to current affairs, perhaps Allison’s depiction suffers from being extrapolated from two city states that had a population of not more than a quarter of a million people between them, compared to the 1.4 billion people in China and 330 million people in the United States today.

Furthermore, the historical parallels between Sparta and Athens and the US and China are rather inapt since Athens, the centre of democracy, was destroyed by Sparta, which was the dominant land power in the Greek peninsula. In terms of military might, the US is more akin to Sparta with the strongest and most war-tested military and incumbent global power.

However, contemporary US leaders might identify with Athens as the guardian of democracy as well as having the strongest navy. Few remember that owning slaves was allowed in Athens, too.

My reading of Thucydides in the English translation indicates he saw war clearly from his realist experience not only as a general but also as a politician.

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