French President Emmanuel Macron worked his Gallic flair to success in China, but his charm fell flat at home in the West. Specifically, his call for strategic autonomy to steer clear of US-China tensions over Taiwan drew flak; his effort to solicit Chinese President Xi Jinping’s help on Ukraine was also met with scepticism.
Later, Xi did take a call from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, possibly to the relief of the under-pressure Macron. After what Zelensky characterised as “a long and meaningful phone call” with Xi, China agreed to send a special envoy to Ukraine, while Kyiv named an ambassador to Beijing.
Coming on the heels of the China-brokered Saudi-Iran rapprochement, last month’s Macron-Xi-Zelensky diplomatic balancing act has nudged the world, yet again, closer to multipolarity.
France gave the Statue of Liberty to the United States and is its oldest ally in Europe, but the US deems China its greatest “consequential threat”. Yet, as it turned out, “democratic” Macron discussed global issues with “autocratic” Xi.
The Chinese president then spoke to “democratic” Zelensky, who is backed by the US and is leading his nation in a war with Russia. Earlier this year, Xi met “autocratic” Russian President Vladimir Putin, despite China’s position that nations have the right to safeguard their territorial integrity.
To state the obvious, democratic values are sacrosanct. But it is equally evident that pigeonholing a nation as autocratic or democratic is not only an oversimplification but, more importantly, counterproductive.
World dynamics have changed, and it is in the US’ interest to be courageous and embrace the brave new world of multipolarity. Instead, an edgy and agitated US is trying to cling to unipolarity by leading the “free world” in a crusade against “autocracy”. This is untenable without the global goodwill it enjoyed in the bygone era of the US-Soviet Cold War.
It’s worth noting that the late French president Jacques Chirac adamantly refused to join the US war in Iraq. Like Chirac, Macron is merely advocating for the “freedom” to make geopolitical choices.
Macron is not alone, and other “democratic” leaders looking for a similar “freedom” include Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva of Brazil, Olaf Scholz of Germany, Anthony Albanese of Australia and Joko Widodo of Indonesia. This is democracy at work on the global geopolitical stage.
While ties with China are not without concerns, they bring significant strategic benefits. Nations are, therefore, keen to engage China despite it being a target of stigmatisation by the US. Unsurprisingly, it’s no longer plain sailing for US hegemony – there are some headwinds gathering in the Global South, and pockets of light-to-moderate breezes are forming in the Global North.
On Ukraine, US President Joe Biden continues to militarily force Putin further into a corner, even as Xi is pushing for a 12-point political settlement. Similarly, Biden is further cornering North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. The recent US-South Korea nuclear agreement is viewed by China as “provoking confrontation” in its backyard.
On Taiwan, the US continues to goad China with actions that Beijing considers blatant violations of the one-China principle and the China-US joint communiques. Xi would also prefer a peaceful settlement here, but he will resort to military means if Taiwan declares independence.
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Marcos says US bases in Philippines not for ‘offensive action’ as Taiwan tensions simmer
Marcos says US bases in Philippines not for ‘offensive action’ as Taiwan tensions simmer
The US’ relentless pursuit of unipolar hegemony risks pushing Russia, North Korea and China to a point of no return, and this will create a new era of global conflict and instability not seen since the US-Soviet Cold War.
China’s continued prosperity is contingent on global stability. This is why Xi rejects the “Thucydides trap”, a Western academic concept pointing to a potential US-China military conflict. Instead, he advocates “non-conflict, non-confrontation, mutual respect and win-win cooperation”.
Global instability doesn’t only undermine China, but also other nations, especially those in the developing world. The US’ reluctant transition to multipolarity should, and can only, be facilitated by a collective global effort, and this is the rationale for China’s endorsement of strategic autonomy for all nations and its flurry of diplomatic activity.
According to the IMF, China will contribute about one-third of global GDP growth in 2023, a “welcome boost” at a time when “uncertainties are exceptionally high”, according to managing director Kristalina Georgieva.
Nations are looking to China to help relieve hardships and this is an opportunity for the US to stay relevant by working with China.
The US will continue to have a leadership role in a multipolar world, and it is naive to bet against it or diminish its contribution to humanity. In fact, Xi stressed to Biden at the G20 last year that “China and the US need to have a sense of responsibility for history, for the world and for the people”, and they should “explore the right way to get along with each other in the new era”.
Major fault lines remain, but most global leaders are working to bridge them. Even Pope Francis, leader of some 1.3 billion Catholics worldwide, sent his Hong Kong bishop Stephen Chow to Beijing in April at the invitation of China, the first such visit in almost 30 years.
Perhaps Biden, a Catholic, should consider the wisdom of engagement and reconciliation from Pope Francis.
Lub Bun Chong is a partner of C Consultancy and Helios Strategic Advisors, and the author of Managing a Chinese Partner: Insights From Four Global Companies
