G7 summit a chance for Kishida to show his vision for Japan’s economy and security outstrips Abe’s

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has reinvigorated those arguing that Japan should revise its constitution and bolster its ability to defend itself
The Group of 7 summit in Hiroshima could be the stage for Japan to announce its intent to send weapons to Ukraine, with the added bonus of spurring economic growth

Yoshihiro Sakai

Published: 10:00pm, 16 May 2023

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Kazuhisa Shimada, Japan’s former administrative vice-minister of defence, spoke recently about the risks to Japan’s security at a conference where Prime Minister Fumio Kishida used a video message sent from Africa to spell out his intention to amend Japan’s constitution. It was a rare instance of a top civilian officer in the defence ministry speaking publicly about the country’s defence dilemma.

Shimada said Japan needed a solid, independent defence arm because it would not always be able to depend on US military power under the security treaty between the two countries. He argued that the US military presence would continue to wane as it started to do after former president Barack Obama said the United States would no longer be the world’s policeman.

Japan’s constitution came into effect on May 3, 1947, while the country was still under occupation. The signing of the Treaty of San Francisco in 1951 brought the end of the occupation, restoring Japan’s sovereignty over its home islands while making Japan’s status that of a US protectorate. The security treaty was revised in 1960, but Japan’s status remained.

The debate around whether Article 9 of the constitution – in which Japan renounces war – should be amended has gone on for decades since the country regained its independence. Both supporters of Article 9 and those who want it revised hold events where they make their case each year around May 3, which is Constitution Memorial Day. Amending the constitution has been one of the consistent driving forces of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party since it was established in 1955.

In Article 9, Japan renounces “war as a sovereign right of the nation and the threat or use of force as means of settling international disputes”, as well as maintaining land, sea or air forces. The goal of the clause was to curb Japan’s ability to return to its pre-war belligerence and instead help create international peace based on justice and order. Former prime minister Shinzo Abe, who aggressively pursued constitutional revision for much of his tenure, often said Japan must become a “normal country” with a right to self-defence.

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Japan rebuilt its economy and prospered as it provided materials for the US to carry out its wars in Korea and Vietnam. Thanks to the Cold War and its security treaty with the US, Japan was able to focus on economic growth and flourish. The end of the Cold War, the appearance of the “Asian tigers”, China’s rapid economic growth and other factors have weighed on Japan’s global economic presence, but there was still no clear reason for Japan to focus on remilitarising.

As such, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last February was a boon for those who want to revise Japan’s constitution. In 2015, Abe and the LDP passed a series of controversial security bills that allowed the Self-Defence Forces to engage in limited collective self-defence, such as coming to the aid of allies under attack. This was a significant departure from the traditional interpretation of Article 9.

Now, thanks to Russia’s act of aggression against Ukraine, there is greater momentum behind those who want Japan to be able to protect itself. They can argue that North Korea’s nuclear programme and China’s growing assertiveness are increasing the risk of Japan being invaded, just as Ukraine was. Amid all this, Kishida has approved a significant defence overhaul and doubled the country’s defence budget across the next five years.

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However, the government has not addressed concerns around the military code, courts martial and other important issues that must be tackled if Japan wants to transform the SDF into a proper Japanese military. For example, the SDF cannot drive tanks on the roads freely, even in an emergency, because they must follow the same rules as ordinary vehicles under the Road Traffic Act.

In the meantime, Kishida is focusing on reviving Japan’s economic growth with his own measures rather than Abenomics, and this includes revitalising the Japanese defence industry. This has the potential to contribute to the country’s economy as many domestic manufacturers also produce submarines, jet fighters, missiles, tanks and more, but the industry has to walk a tightrope given long-standing restrictions on the export of lethal weaponry.

Kishida has decided to have Japan stand with Nato countries in providing aid to stop Russia’s aggression in Ukraine. Members of the transatlantic security alliance have provided weapons, financial aid and other support to Ukraine. Even Germany reversed its policy of not sending weapons to conflict zones only a few days after Russia’s invasion.

The Japan Maritime Self-Defence Force warship JS Kumano docks at Changi Naval Base at a display of warships during IMDEX Asia 2023, a maritime defence exhibition in Singapore, on May 4. Photo: Reuters

Even though he is happy for Japan to keep working with them, Kishida so far seems to be hesitant to take the next step by joining Nato countries in sending weapons to Ukraine. However, the upcoming Group of 7 summit – which takes place from May 19 to 21 in Hiroshima – is expected to produce a joint declaration roundly condemning Russia’s aggression against its neighbour. That could be an opportune moment for Kishida to announce Japan will provide weapons to Ukraine, with the added bonus of spurring economic growth.

It is significant that Japan appears poised to take the first step towards amending its constitution. Kishida can use this moment to show his vision for Japan outstrips Abe’s in terms of both security and the economy.

Yoshihiro Sakai is adviser to the Office of the President at the University of Tokyo. He is a former market operation officer at the Bank of Japan and a senior economist