Amid harmful media noise on Taiwan and Ukraine, the scientific method could offer clarity

Neither talking up war over Taiwan nor talking down peace in Ukraine is what the world needs. Instead of blind faith in traditional media, we must cultivate clear, scientific thinking

Quentin Parker

Published: 12:30am, 17 May 2023

Why you can trust SCMP

We live in dangerous times – a major escalation in Ukraine remains a risk with spring offensives in the offing as a drum beat for war in the Taiwan Strait quickens. What is the person in the street to think about what they see, hear and read in the media? It can be worrying and confusing.

One issue is whether much of public opinion is forged, not based on accurate, reasonable reporting of data, facts and fair appraisal, but on rhetoric, rumour, sensationalism and extreme interpretations of innocuous activities, whipped up into something almost unrecognisable.

How do we identify biased reporting with possible hidden agendas that only benefit the rich and powerful, and how can we counteract it?

As a forensic scientist, I base my opinions on robust data, scientific testing and verification, attention to detail and application of the scientific method. There is always error in such processes and we try to beat down these errors to see the real signal more clearly.

This may be via improved measurements, revamped instruments, better techniques and different approaches. This is especially for daily topics, whether climate change, Covid-19 and the next pandemic, or the risks of artificial intelligence (AI), robotics, gene editing and antibiotic resistance.

The scientific method can also be usefully applied more broadly in life – in practical decision-making and opinion-forming.

We desperately need more of this now. If more of us can muster our scientific thinking processes from school or university, or acquire these mental skill sets, we can apply these to beat down the noise and see more clearly the real signal. Then, we might know better what and who to believe and so how to act.

These thinking skills include a critical evaluation of information so we can more easily separate truth from fiction, fact from fallacy, and be better able to recognise bluster – in less worrying times, this may only be about which products are best to buy.

Crucially, it is about what is more reasonable to believe. For many, it still comes down to uncritical belief in trusted news outlets, television news programmes and the daily paper – we are all usually too busy to do otherwise. Sadly, such blind faith can be misplaced, as the corrosive influence of the British right-wing press, for example, shows only too clearly, when seen with a critical and scientific eye.

Regrettably, much of the specialised scientific and objective reporting we used to rely on is often no longer from journalists with decent educational backgrounds in science, technology, engineering and mathematics. Balanced and educated opinion on such matters has diminished significantly over the last 20 years, replaced by journalists with less scientific backgrounds, talented as they may be, when we need relevant expertise more than ever.

This degradation is set against the backdrop of the Ukraine war where innovative hi-tech ways to kill are emerging, such as sophisticated drones (as in the recent Kremlin attacks), high-precision artillery and AI or cyberwarfare.

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At the same time, there is mounting concern over the safety of Ukraine’s nuclear power plant. An objective and scientific risk assessment of the likelihood of unleashing the next Chernobyl (also in Ukraine) should better focus minds on both sides and encourage a step back.

There is also an increasing obsession in the West over Taiwan and nuclear submarine deals. Recently, in my Australian home, two respected and important newspapers carried lurid headlines about the prospect of conflict between China and Australia. It would be laughable if it were not so serious. Why? Because many readers trust opinion pieces from so-called experts – but I smell a rat.

Despite new Washington consensus on China, voices for peace must not falter

Anyone who knows anything about China will understand it can play a very patient and long game – I believe any military takeover of Taiwan is a distant prospect.

Instead, I hope gradual improvements in trade, cooperation and understanding, coupled with respect for and recognition of different ways of doing things, like with Hong Kong and Macau, will reap dividends – one country, three systems.

Not war, but peace. Peace such as is hoped for Russia and Ukraine – where an objective, rational, forensic and yes, even scientific evaluation of the Chinese peace plan has much to commend it.

So let’s tune out the confusing noise and seek clarity of purpose for the sake of peace – it’s the scientific and rational thing to do.

Quentin Parker is an astrophysicist based at the University of Hong Kong and director of its Laboratory for Space Research