Kim Jong-un’s miscalculations leave his regime in North Korea hanging by a thread
- Three events have precipitated the crisis in North Korea: UN sanctions, Kim’s harsh Covid-19 controls and his failed bid to court Russia and China in a defiant nuclear push
- The only remaining means of preserving state integrity is the use of terror and repression
These sanctions caused North Korea’s economy to deteriorate. Gross domestic product contracted, causing a reduction in per capita income and subsequently consumption. A prolonged decline in exports also led to a cumulative trade deficit. Attempts to compensate for this trade deficit depleted foreign exchange reserves, impeding the country’s ability to import.
The sustained contraction of exports, the state’s main source of revenue, also meant a fiscal crunch, while shrinking imports of raw materials and consumer necessities, including food, jeopardised the output of the state manufacturing sector, induced food insecurity and instigated inflation.
The resulting depreciation of the domestic currency eroded purchasing power, stimulating the circulation of foreign currencies.
The disruption of state manufacturing also contributed to “marketisation from below” and the proliferation of the non-state sector – also known as the shadow economy – which now accounts for an estimated 70 per cent of the economy. This led to the spread of corruption and an unequal income distribution, and the state losing the ability to effectively coordinate economic activity, impairing its legitimacy.
Thus, UN sanctions and the pandemic have accelerated North Korea’s economic contraction. Between 2017 and 2021, its gross domestic product shrank by an estimated 12-13 per cent.
As a result of UN sanctions, exports plunged by 91 per cent, from US$2.82 billion in 2016 to US$240 million in 2018. Exports continued to plummet during the pandemic. By 2021, North Korea’s trade deficit with China had grown to an estimated US$8.29 billion, which led to the further depletion of foreign exchange reserves. Meanwhile, the contraction of the state manufacturing sector encouraged the proliferation of the jangmadang, where workers can earn 80 times their state salaries.
Kim’s decisions were based on two critical premises. One, that Russia would achieve its strategic military objectives in Ukraine and emerge as the victor. Two, that China would embrace North Korea as a fully fledged alliance member and give it much-needed economic help as a way for Beijing to counter the alliances led by the United States as part of its China containment policy.
Kim’s gamble backfired and the alliance did not materialise. His assumptions are incorrect and based upon miscalculations. Nuclear weapons are not only a threat to the United States, but also to China.
For China, the geopolitical polarisation caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine also means the cost of providing illegal economic help to North Korea has skyrocketed.
North Korea’s Kim Jong-un must be talked down before game of dare escalates
The threat posed to North Korea does not stem from a hostile external military invasion, but from internal contradictions and system irrationalities. Ironically, the more Kim provokes other countries with his intercontinental ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons, the more vulnerable his regime becomes.
The regime has lost its legitimacy, having seen the erosion of its bureaucratic controlling mechanisms – the rationing system – and the collapse of the “small coalition” system of leadership. The only remaining means of preserving state integrity is the use of terror and repression, and as the predicament worsens, the regime must escalate these measures. For Kim, there is no light at the end of the tunnel and the survival of his regime hangs by a thread.
Dr Chan Young Bang is the founder and president of KIMEP University, principal investigator at North Korea Strategic Research Centre, and a former economic adviser to the first president of Kazakhstan, Nursultan Nazarbayev