Opinion | Political shake-ups in Thailand and Turkey unlikely to spring foreign policy surprises
- The opposition in power will be restrained by contentious domestic politics, a growing ‘multi-alignment’ consensus and the sheer value of strategic and economic ties with China
This year, two pivotal states in Asia faced their most consequential elections in recent memory. Although perched at opposite ends of the continent, Thailand and Turkey share much in common, prompting some political scientists to describe them as “unlikely twins”.
Turkey and Thailand are regional powers with dynamic export-oriented economies. They are also US treaty allies. Yet, Turkey and Thailand have maintained warm ties with China and other Eastern powers.
Crucially, the nations share a long history of military coups against democratically elected governments and have been under the thumb of strongman populist leaders in recent memory.
But even if the opposition manages to capture power, with Thailand facing contentious coalition-building parliamentary politics and Turkey heading into a polarising run-off presidential election, it’s unlikely that either country will radically alter its foreign policy direction.
By all indications, both nations will optimise their prized position as “pivot states” in the 21st century – deftly balancing relations with the West and East to maximise national interests.