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India
Opinion
Doug Christie
Doug Christie

Macroscope | 4 reasons India won’t overtake China as the world’s agricultural commodity hub any time soon

  • The media frenzy around India overtaking China as the world’s most populous country has led to questions about what it means for the global agricultural market
  • The confluence of slow growth, a large vegetarian presence, diffused urbanisation and trade protectionism render India an unlikely contender to dethrone China

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An employee works on a pile of corn at a drying yard in Beian, northeast Heilongjiang province, on October 20, 2022. China is a top importer of the most widely traded crops globally: soybeans, vegetable oil, corn and sugar. Photo: Xinhua
Doug Christie
India recently overtook China as the world’s most populous country, according to UN projections. Around one in three people on the planet now lives within the borders of these two nations.
The media frenzy surrounding the revelation centred on the economic implications of India’s new status, much to the chagrin of the Chinese authorities. The question now arises as to what this means for the global agricultural market.

Since the dawn of the Malthusian spectre, population growth has been associated with a reduction in living standards. As the theory goes, populations grow faster than the resources required to feed them.

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China has been able to defy that thesis in the past two decades, combining a growing population with consistent income growth. It has become the largest buyer of key agricultural commodities to ensure its inhabitants enjoy a diversified diet.
China is now a top importer of the most widely traded crops globally: soybeans, vegetable oil, corn and sugar. With that, Beijing wields enormous influence in this space. Chinese demand has caused explosive growth in South American soybean production, leading Brazil to pass the United States as the world’s leading producer of soybeans and prompting Argentina to become the top exporter of soybean meal.
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It is now vital to ascertain whether India can challenge China in this field. The confluence of four distinct factors suggests India’s trade trajectory will diverge in significant ways and that China’s standing is likely to remain unmatched for the foreseeable future.

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