As more nations oppose China, how seriously does the world take Beijing?
- From Canada to Italy, Switzerland to Lithuania, countries are standing up to China or de-risking, some making moves they would never try with the US
- If the world does not take China seriously, the risk is that Beijing could act radically
All of this is taking place before China ascends to the level of global superpower, a stage currently occupied by only the United States.
This aggressive behaviour from nations does not bode well for Beijing. Across the globe, governments are willing to take steps against the world’s second-largest economy that they dared not take against Washington. Does the world view China differently? Does China have gravitas in the eyes of other nations? Is China a serious power?
This is a question that China, more than anyone else, must ask itself. It is Beijing, who has to accept the writing on the wall, to change the status quo.
Take Canada. In less than one week, Canada reversed decades of friendly foreign policy towards Beijing.
Whether Aukus lets Canada in or Canada’s moves have any real impact on China is not important. A “China rethink” has taken hold in Ottawa. How does China stop this from snowballing globally? Who will be next?
It is a similar story in Europe, where Germany’s chancellor recently used the term “triad” to describe Europe’s relationship with China, which it sees as a partner, competitor and systemic rival. It points to the new sentiment in Europe’s power centres – China is more of a competitor and a rival than a friend.
This represents a strategic challenge for China. The Chinese never developed a playbook for magnetism or how to keep nations “hooked”.
It used to be that economics trumped geopolitics. But as “vertical” globalisation – the emergence of geopolitical blocs characterised by tech walls and barriers – accelerates the reverse is happening.
Many nations are putting politics and ideology first, ready to wrestle with Beijing, when they would never have even got into the ring with the US. It is not just the US’ allies thinking this way. Mexico is working on a lithium alliance with Argentina, Bolivia and Chile, but has refused to diversify the country’s foreign currency reserves away from the dollar.
Customers in mainland China and Hong Kong account for around 16 per cent Micron’s revenue, compared to over 60 per cent of that of Qualcomm Inc, another US chip maker. This indicates that Beijing’s move against Micron was actually an indirect message: China still has plenty of ways to turn up the heat on the US.
Except this undertaking by China to be seen as a “serious power” could force Beijing to act radically, like fighting a war in the region or taking “nuclear” economic steps. When the world is already unstable because of the war in Ukraine, any bold moves by China could have adverse repercussions globally.
For years, questions about China revolved around whether it is a developed or developing nation, and how much of a responsible stakeholder Beijing is. These questions, while important, have missed the mark. The most important question is how seriously the world takes China. Because the answer to this defines exactly what Beijing can do in the world – and how the rest of the world behaves.
Abishur Prakash is the CEO of The Geopolitical Business, an advisory firm in Toronto