South Korea’s national security strategy recycles failed hardline approaches to Pyongyang

South Korea’s plan is to boost deterrence, sanctions and response capabilities to North Korean threats – all methods that have failed to get Pyongyang to denuclearise
Instead, Yoon’s government should build trust by working to resume exchanges, promote dialogue between the US and North Korea, and end the Korean war

Gabriela Bernal

Published: 12:30am, 16 Jun 2023

Why you can trust SCMP

The Yoon Suk-yeol government in South Korea says it wants to “foster a sustainable peace” on the Korean peninsula. That’s according to the administration’s recently published national security strategy, which outlines three main objectives: enhancing the safety of its citizens, establishing peace on the peninsula and preparing for future unification, and laying the foundation for East Asia’s prosperity.

Although these goals are worth striving for, the methods proposed by the Yoon government may not work. It argues that “real peace is only possible when supported by strong security” while emphasising the importance of strengthening the country’s military capabilities.

In particular, it lays out the need to secure “overwhelming capabilities through the Korean three-axis system”, the military strategy to counter North Korean nuclear and missile threats. In line with this, the “government will continue to enhance its high-yield retaliatory capabilities against North Korea’s military leadership and core facilities”.

The Yoon administration’s strategy also includes its intention to normalise inter-Korean relations, establish mutual respect and trust, and pursue dialogue with North Korea “without preconditions, maintaining a flexible and open stance”. Few details are provided, however, on how to achieve such progress.

Instead, the Yoon government’s strategy is centred on approaches that have been tried and which failed in the past. The document states that the administration’s goal is to strengthen deterrence, tighten sanctions and develop overwhelming response capabilities to North Korean threats, to “help create an environment where North Korea has no alternative but to abandon its nuclear and missile development”.

This way of thinking has not worked for decades. The international community has long expected North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons programme in response to external pressure, such as sanctions or deterrence, to no avail.

A test launch of a solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile, Hwasong-18, at an undisclosed location, in a still image of a photo used in a video by North Korea’s Korean Central News Agency on April 14. Photo: Reuters

North Korea’s nuclear weapons programme has been advancing and the country’s military technology capabilities improving. Sanctions have been particularly ineffective yet the Yoon government continues to call for them, stating: “We will maintain a strong and effective sanctions regime against North Korea.”

Another issue is the document’s wording on denuclearisation. Although the two Koreas have agreed in the past, such as in the 2018 Panmunjom Declaration, to achieve the denuclearisation of the entire Korean peninsula, the Yoon government’s strategy emphasises the need for the denuclearisation of North Korea alone.

According to the document, the Yoon administration aims to “pursue the complete denuclearisation of North Korea in cooperation with the international community”. Similarly, a white paper published by the Ministry of Unification in April made reference specifically to the denuclearisation of North Korea, not of the peninsula.

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As is the case with the sanctions approach, efforts to unilaterally denuclearise North Korea have not succeeded. Kim Jong-un has made clear time and again that there will be no unilateral denuclearisation of his country. “There will never be such a thing as our abandonment of the nuclear weapons or denuclearisation first, nor will there be any negotiations to this end or bargaining chip in these processes,” the North Korean leader said last September.

Despite this reality, both Seoul and Washington continue to push for denuclearisation and hope to achieve it by recycling policies that have failed for years. It is unrealistic to demand denuclearisation from the North alone when the stationing of US nuclear assets in the South remains a possibility. For lasting peace, both sides must commit to ridding the entire peninsula of nuclear weapons.

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The Yoon administration’s national security strategy also makes no mention of ending the Korean war – a necessary step to long-term peace. This differs from the approach taken by the former Moon Jae-in government, which advocated for ending the Korean war while also playing a mediating role to advance diplomacy between Washington and Pyongyang.

The latter also doesn’t seem to be a priority for the Yoon government, which has chosen to fully align itself with the United States and Japan’s hardline North Korea policy lines. South Korea must, however, be careful not to place all its diplomatic eggs in one basket given its highly complex geopolitical location and the need for multilateral cooperation to bring peace to the Korean peninsula.

‘Overwhelming power’ is not the way to peace on the Korean peninsula

The cover page of the national security strategy refers to South Korea as a “global pivotal state for freedom, peace and prosperity”. For this to become a reality, cooperation with various actors is necessary to resume diplomacy with North Korea and contribute to the region’s stability.

While the document mentions China and Russia, details on promoting greater cooperation with them were not adequately fleshed out. More cooperation with both Beijing and Moscow would create opportunities for dialogue with Pyongyang, given the close relationship both China and Russia maintain with North Korea. It is important for the Yoon government to adopt a more inclusive diplomatic strategy and place more emphasis on peace, instead of mainly on military capabilities.

New strategies are needed to bring North Korea back to the negotiating table. This should not include unilateral denuclearisation demands, more sanctions, holding prolonged military drills with the US and Japan, or responding aggressively to every single North Korean military provocation.

The Yoon government must build trust with Pyongyang through its actions. This includes being more proactive in resuming inter-Korean exchanges, promoting dialogue between the US and North Korea, shifting its focus away from denuclearisation towards arms control measures, and laying out a road map to end the Korean war.

Gabriela Bernal is a North Korea analyst and PhD scholar at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul, South Korea