My Take | Vietnam and China agree to play nice over maritime disputes – for now
- Hanoi walks a tightrope as it wants a US security presence in the region, but does not want to be dragged into Chinese-American rivalry
“Jaw, jaw is better than war, war.” Actually, according to historian Martin Gilbert, rather than engaging in baby talk, what Winston Churchill said was, “Meeting jaw to jaw is better than war.”
But either way, Churchill’s meaning is clear enough. By his advice, it’s a good thing that Premier Li Qiang and Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh met this week and promised each other to manage their South China Sea disputes through dialogue and cooperation.
In other words, they agreed they should not fight over them. But neither will there be any resolution any time soon. A code of maritime conduct is on the cards for Asean countries and China, but I wouldn’t hold my breath.
Indeed, given the nature and origins of their disputes, it is hard to see a resolution any time soon. In a word, it is basically intractable.
And that’s not their only fight over a body of water. There is also the control of water sources in the Mekong River as massive Chinese dams affect its flows. Vietnam is among the five countries downstream, while China, in the upstream, has 11 giant dams at the water source. An estimated 60 million people derive livelihoods at the Mekong Basin. Climate change will make water scarcity a source of conflict, but that’s a discussion for another day.
However, in the South China Sea, what looms large in the background, but was left unspoken at this week’s meeting, is the outsize role the United States plays in the region.