My Take | For Xi Jinping, economics and unification don’t mix
- While unification with Taiwan and building a strong economy are the twin pillars of the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, it’s dangerous to assume, as Washington does, that a faltering economy makes Beijing more aggressive towards the island
This is the final in a two-column series.
It’s hardly worth mentioning that China and the United States don’t see eye to eye on most things these days. But there is a specific conflicting perspective over Taiwan that I find particularly intriguing. This is worth examining since there are probably no two more pressing issues than Taiwan and the mainland economy within the increasingly hostile US-Chinese relations.
So far as Beijing is concerned, I think it’s fair to assume that unification with the island is an absolute end in itself, quite divorced from the state of the economy.
There is, however, an emerging consensus within the US foreign policy establishment that the worse the mainland economy fares, the likelier it will use military force against the island.
It strikes me that this American view is not only wrong-headed, but highly dangerous. It will launch a power dynamic that compels the US into an armed conflict over Taiwan, in a prophecy of its own making.
If this view really takes hold in Washington, then China’s economic slowdown, which is a foregone conclusion compared with the double-digit growth of the past two decades, will be read as a signal of Beijing’s aggressive intention.