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Taiwan
OpinionComment
Wang Xiangwei
Wang Xiangwei

Opinion | To dispel war talk, US and China must forge a new understanding on Taiwan

  • Beijing and Washington must take full advantage of their return to high-level talks to snuff out dangerous speculation about an impending war in the Taiwan Strait
  • As long as Taiwan does not declare independence, war is highly unlikely

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Illustration: Craig Stephens
Wang Xiangwei
The Chinese mainland is ramping up efforts to seek a military reunification with Taiwan, perhaps as early as 2027. That seems to be the prevailing sentiment in the international community amid US-China tensions.
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That was also the underlying theme of a panel discussion I was invited to, delicately put in the programme as “the geopolitical challenges of Taiwan and its neighbours”, last month at the World News Media Congress in Taipei. At the panel and in subsequent interactions with fellow attendees, I argued that war over the Taiwan Strait was very unlikely so long as the self-ruled island does not declare independence.

But this simple yet significant argument appears lost on most people inundated with dire forecasts of a mainland attack on Taiwan and reports that China and the United States are preparing for a war over the island.
Their fears have been amplified by the rising US-China confrontation, apprehensions over Chinese President Xi Jinping’s absolute power and intentions, and the pro-independence movement perceived as gaining momentum in Taiwan. A case in point: according to the congress organisers, more than a few attendees inquired about the safety of visiting Taiwan.

Beijing’s intentions towards Taiwan, or more precisely, Xi’s ambition, has elicited the biggest fear. Over the past few years, much of the world has been seized by the presumption that Xi is determined to achieve reunification glory before retirement.

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Some analysts appear to have zeroed in on 2027, when Xi’s third term as Communist Party head expires. The assumption is that a reunification would help seal his fourth term and ensure his name as the man who made China whole again.

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