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Opinion | Philippine power struggles add to Marcos Jnr’s tough US-China balancing act

  • Marcos Jnr’s pivot towards the US is dividing his coalition government even as the EDCA defence pact with Washington draws Beijing’s ire
  • As he embarks on his second year in office, managing China and US defence ties will be doubly crucial

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Illustration: Craig Stephens
“We are slowly making progress because the key to that is the improved communication between the Philippine government and the Chinese government,” said President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr after the latest negotiations over disputed fisheries resources in the South China Sea.

Just days earlier, the Philippines had also hosted a goodwill visit by a People’s Liberation Army Navy contingent. China’s embassy in Manila described the naval visit as a “steady step in [bilateral] defence cooperation” vital to “implementing the important consensus” between both countries’ leaders. Recently, top Chinese diplomat Wang Yi said China was ready to start a “new golden era” with the Philippines.

Marcos Jnr has emphasised the importance of robust communication channels in managing maritime disputes with China. This was consistent with his election-era vow to prioritise dialogue over confrontation when dealing with the Philippines’ biggest trading partner. Hopes for fruitful relations with China, however, have been undercut by growing disagreement over America’s military presence in the Southeast Asian country.
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In particular, Marcos Jnr’s decision to implement and even expand the controversial Enhanced Defence Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), which grants the Pentagon access to prized Philippine military facilities, has drawn criticism from Beijing and key Filipino figures, including former president Rodrigo Duterte. Managing the increasingly contentious relations with China will be among Marcos Jnr’s greatest policy challenges in his second year in office.
Fresh into power, Marcos Jnr, the namesake son of the former Filipino strongman, wasted no time to “reintroduce” his country and rehabilitate his notorious family’s political reputation. He recalibrated his predecessor’s violent “drug war” in favour of a more rehabilitation-focused approach, while adopting a more conciliatory tone with liberal media outlets. He also visited many countries and partners in his first year and attended the World Economic Forum in Switzerland.
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His most consequential move, however, was on the foreign policy front. An authoritative survey released earlier this year showed that more than 80 per cent of Filipinos wanted the country to develop stronger ties with traditional allies to protect its South China Sea interests. Another survey, published soon after Marcos Jnr was elected, showed the US, Australia and Japan were Filipinos’ most trusted foreign partners. In contrast, China was largely viewed with mistrust.

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