Imran Khan’s jailing leaves little hope Pakistan’s democracy can escape ruling elite and meddling military
- Imran Khan’s imprisonment and removal from politics is the latest development in months of political turmoil since his removal from office last year
- National elections are due soon, and the establishment’s influence means there is little expectation the upcoming vote will be free and fair
Pakistan’s military has ruled the country for more than half its existence since gaining independence in 1947. Only three of Pakistan’s 23 prime ministers have held office for more than four years, and the country continues to operate as a partial democracy owing to the military’s control over domestic and external affairs.
Khan’s party came into power in 2018, winning the support of the urban middle class who resonated with his promises of uprooting corruption and governance reforms. The military’s support for Khan is also worth mentioning, and its influence continued from the media to foreign policy.
Tensions between Imran Khan, Pakistan military threaten to erupt into chaos
His allegations of foreign interference and deep-rooted corruption in the Pakistani establishment drew many followers and generated political momentum that made even the army nervous. There was talk that this could be a turning point in the country’s history that led to changes in Pakistan’s democratic outlook.
Khan’s open challenge of the establishment galvanised his rivals to unite, with Pakistan’s current ruling coalition, including formerly bitter foes the PPP and PML-N. Given the fate of those whose views do not align with the establishment, the situation was increasingly disconcerting for both Khan and Pakistan’s fragile democracy.
With the current parliament’s term ending this month, Pakistan is expected to hold elections for its national assembly no later than November. Going by history, there is little expectation that the upcoming vote will be free and fair. The ruling coalition is likely to retain power, thanks to the support of the military and keeping Khan out of the election by jailing him, thus making him ineligible to run for political office for five years.
Even if Khan’s movement helped usher in needed changes and provided the people with hope that a functional democracy could emerge, the influence of the golden triangle of Pakistani democracy – the parliament, judiciary and military – still looms large.
The question is whether a different political system will evolve in Pakistan and give its people a fair shot at achieving a viable, credible democracy that is free from the clutches of dynastic politics, established elites and, last but not least, a military that has an overarching reach in national politics.
Professor Syed Munir Khasru is chairman of the international think tank, The Institute for Policy, Advocacy, and Governance (IPAG) with presence in Dhaka, Delhi, Melbourne, Vienna and Dubai. (www.syedmunirkhasru.org)