This satellite image from the European Space Agency’s Copernicus Sentinel-2 satellite taken on August 16 shows fires burning in Yellowknife, Northwest Territories, Canada. Satellites are essential to monitoring and measuring the effects of climate change. Photo: AFP/European Space Agency
Opinion
Connor Horsfall
Connor Horsfall
Why tackling the climate crisis requires new rules to keep outer space safe and stable
The current space governance regime is unsustainable, with vague language and unenforceable terms leaving states to behave as they wish
Many of the variables needed to monitor climate change can only be measured by satellites, so keeping space safe is essential
The successful deployment of India’s lunar rover last week is a tremendous success for science. The rover, known as Pragyan, will assess minerals on the moon’s surface and study the chemical composition of the soil.
It’s believed that the south polar region may possess water ice below the surface, which could be mined for rocket fuel and life support for future crewed missions. The Indian mission shows how our capabilities within space are expanding rapidly.
This is good news, but in all of the excitement over new missions such as that of the Chandrayaan-3 spacecraft, it’s easy to forget that space governance remains woefully inadequate. There are five international treaties underpinning space law, overseen by the UN Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS).
These treaties lack enforcement mechanisms, making them easy to ignore. Without a new international agreement on space, the world faces growing risks to infrastructure crucial for tackling many problems humanity faces, including climate change.
There are now 77 government space agencies and more than 10,000 commercial space companies. The space economy is worth a staggering US$469 billion, with commercial space ventures accounting for almost 80 per cent of the market. This could lead to 100,000 satellites in orbit by 2030, increasing the risk of debris damaging critical infrastructure.
03:03
India releases new images of its Chandrayaan-3 rover exploring surface of lunar south pole
India releases new images of its Chandrayaan-3 rover exploring surface of lunar south pole
The uncontrolled re-entry of China’s Long March 5B rocket booster back to Earth last year and Russia’s attack on the Kosmos-1408 satellite illustrate how the current governance structure is unsustainable. Even so, all major space powers claim to support the goal of improving space governance.
The United States committed to “strengthening the global governance of outer space activities” in its new framework for space diplomacy published in May. China’s white paper on its space programme published last year outlined its “commitment to cooperate in space environment governance” and willingness to “participate in discussions on international issues and the development of relevant mechanisms”.
Yet each nation has a different vision of what this governance should look like. Vague terms such as “peaceful purposes” can be defined in different ways. They offer the perfect smokescreen for states to portray themselves as responsible actors without behaving like one.
The Artemis Accords aimed to solve this problem, but they were drafted in Washington and will never win support in Beijing and Moscow. Britain, as part of the European Space Agency (ESA), should lead the way in this. A useful starting point would be reforming the Outer Space Treaty, which was established in 1967. This should be updated to take account of fresh risks in space.
COPUOS, with 102 members including all major space powers, is perhaps our best option to facilitate such dialogue. Through the committee and alongside the ESA, the UK can play a key role in filling the current policy vacuum, reducing tensions and building a consensus between space powers.
It remains to be seen how feasible establishing an agreed set of regulations is within the current political climate, what these should be and whether signatories will stick to them. This shouldn’t deter policymakers, however, especially as achieving stability within space is crucial for tackling the climate crisis.
From mapping land use to calculating carbon emissions, satellite imagery is an essential tool in tracking our physical environment. As wildfires spread across Europe, Hawaii and elsewhere, satellite imagery captured the extent of the damage. Images published by Copernicus, the EU’s Earth observation programme, show the flames visible from space and highlight the areas most at risk. Local authorities have used this valuable data to enhance their planning and risk management.
Many of the variables needed to monitor climate change can only be measured by satellites. Reducing the likelihood of damage to such essential equipment is fundamental to protecting the environment. Put simply, we can’t manage what we don’t measure.
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Why were the Maui wildfires so devastating?
Why were the Maui wildfires so devastating?
The UN climate conference in Dubai later this year offers a good platform to begin the long and difficult process of negotiations. The United Arab Emirates is developing its own space agency and launched a US$820 million National Space Fund last year, eager to diversify away from oil. With strong relations with all the major space powers, the UAE is well-suited to operate as a neutral venue.
We cannot afford to let diplomatic tensions hamper our ability to tackle the climate crisis. We need a unified framework for global powers to follow while in space.
COP27 didn’t have the impact many hoped for, and it is paramount that this year’s forum has greater success in driving the climate agenda forward. Providing greater stability to space is essential for doing that.
Connor Horsfall is a China specialist and consultant at Shearwater Global
