How South China Sea moves by Beijing are sending Vietnam, others in region deeper into US embrace

Vietnam will upgrade US ties to the level of those with China when President Joe Biden arrives for his first visit on Sunday
Surprise move from long-time communist ally highlights souring of traditionally friendly Southeast Asian ties over Beijing’s maritime muscle-flexing

Shi Jiangtao

Published: 5:58pm, 5 Sep 2023

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China’s ties with Vietnam appear set for a seismic shift, as Hanoi prepares to upgrade its relations with Washington to the same level as those with Beijing.

The historic two-step elevation – from what had been a “comprehensive partnership” since 2013 – to a “comprehensive strategic partnership” is expected to be announced when Joe Biden arrives in Hanoi on Sunday for his first visit as US president.

Biden’s trip and the expected upgrade in bilateral ties mark a double breakthrough after years of US efforts to court Vietnam, which has steadily tilted towards Washington but nonetheless continued its balancing act in the US-China rivalry.

The change in status will elevate the United States by two notches to the highest level in Vietnam’s diplomatic hierarchy – alongside China, Russia, India and South Korea.

This undoubtedly comes as a big surprise for Beijing, as Hanoi had initially expressed caution about the upgrade over likely repercussions on ties between the communist-ruled neighbours.

China’s top diplomat Wang Yi urges Vietnam to help uphold Communist ideals

The move also looks set to reinforce China’s sense of being under siege. Officials and observers in Beijing have voiced fears about a return of America’s “triangular diplomacy”, which then US top diplomat Henry Kissinger adeptly used half a century ago to tilt the Cold War balance of power – by reopening direct diplomacy with China to counter the Soviet Union.

Beijing has been on a high alert about the Biden administration’s recent inroads in forging bilateral and multilateral coalitions targeting China, including a de facto military alliance with Japan and South Korea unveiled at a landmark trilateral summit in Camp David last month.

In a stark warning to China’s neighbours on Saturday, top diplomat Wang Yi said the culprit behind renewed tensions in the disputed South China Sea must be exposed, accusing a “backstage manipulator” of stirring up troubles in an apparent reference to the US. The “tragedy” of the war in Ukraine must not be allowed to happen in Asia, he cautioned.

China’s top diplomat and Foreign Minister Wang Yi (right) meets Vietnamese Foreign Minister Bui Thanh Son ahead of a regional meeting in Jakarta, Indonesia, on July 13. Photo: Xinhua

This is not the first time that Wang has invoked the Ukraine crisis in sounding an alarm against outside interference in the region.

During a phone call with Vietnamese Foreign Minister Bui Thanh Son in April last year, Wang bluntly warned of the risks of regional tension and confrontation resulting from Washington’s China-focused Indo-Pacific strategy.

“We can’t let the Cold War mentality resurge in the region and the tragedy of Ukraine be repeated around us,” he told Bui, according to an official readout on the Chinese foreign ministry website. Vietnam is a fellow socialist nation, Wang said, urging that it join hands with China to “resist external risks [and] cope with the spillover effects of the Ukraine crisis in the region”.

His warning last year came just weeks after the official launch of Biden’s Indo-Pacific strategy, which named Vietnam as one of Washington’s leading regional partners, along with Taiwan, India, Indonesia and others.

Although Hanoi shares Beijing’s ambivalent attitude towards the Russian invasion of Ukraine, repeated warnings from China appear to have failed to stop Vietnam from stepping up political, military and economic ties with the US amid a bitter maritime dispute with its more powerful neighbour.

02:13

Philippines accuses Chinese coastguard of firing water cannons at its vessels in disputed waters

In fact, Hanoi’s warming US ties underline yet again just how far Beijing’s traditionally friendly relations with its Southeast Asian neighbours have been soured by simmering tensions in the South China Sea, where both Vietnam and China are among the rival claimants.

Vietnamese fishermen last week alleged that a Chinese coastguard ship fired water cannon at their boat near the contested Paracel Islands, according to Vietnam’s state media reports. Tensions also flared between Beijing and Manila after the Chinese coastguard used water cannon at Philippine coastguard boats last month near the disputed Second Thomas Shoal.

Days later, as regional leaders gathered in Jakarta for this week’s annual Asean summit, Beijing’s release of a new official map reinforcing its expansive land and sea territorial claims sparked another row with Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia and India.

South China Sea: could Philippines and Vietnam bond over assertive Beijing?

The Biden administration has clearly benefited the most from the persistent territorial dispute in the South China Sea, which has amplified fears about an increasingly assertive and self-centred China.

The US elevated ties with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations to a comprehensive strategic partnership late last year, after having enlisted Vietnam as a member of its “Quad Plus” framework in 2020.

Beijing has long denounced the US-led Quad grouping with India, Japan and Australia as an anti-China security bloc and “Indo-Pacific Nato” in the making.

“In many ways, the PRC is doing its work for us,” former US assistant secretary of state David Stilwell told the Associated Press, using the acronym for China’s official name – the People’s Republic of China.