Opinion | Ukraine war: the world is staring at mutual assured destruction

Austrian scholar Friedrich Glasl’s model of conflict escalation tracks how disputes deteriorate from tension to total destruction

In the nuclear age, it is vital for political leaders to come to their senses and choose diplomacy, not war

Reading Time:3 minutes

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken tours a bunker at a Ukrainian border guard site on the outskirts of Kyiv, Ukraine, on September 7. The conflict can still be reversed, provided both sides seize windows of opportunity to de-escalate and move from military action back to diplomacy. Photo: AFP

Published: 1:00am, 9 Sep 2023Updated: 2:08am, 9 Sep 2023

Are we moving inexorably towards war? As armed conflict continues in Ukraine, a coup is staged in Niger and July enters history books as the Earth’s hottest month recorded, war and climate change are becoming a toxic mix.

Back in 2021, the US National Intelligence Council’s report, Global Trends 2040, put it thus: “In coming years and decades, the world will face more intense and cascading global challenges ranging from disease to climate change to the disruptions from new technologies and financial crises.

“These challenges will repeatedly test the resilience and adaptability of communities, states, and the international system, often exceeding the capacity of existing systems and models. This looming disequilibrium between existing and future challenges and the ability of institutions and systems to respond is likely to grow and produce greater contestation at every level.”

In short, we are having trouble figuring out how to deal with the crises we face. Each challenge could cause fragmentation as resources are unevenly distributed, and would require hard choices.

What is happening in Ukraine is a moral tragedy: no one has taken a tough decision for peace’s sake, and instead hundreds of thousands have died, millions have been displaced, and nuclear risks lurk.

At the heart of the conflict is the refusal of the West to accommodate the interests of the rest of the world. The recent Brics summit in Johannesburg has only accentuated the growing divide between the West and the rest of the world. Both sides are expanding: Nato, the Western security alliance, is moving eastward to the Pacific, while Brics, the non-Western bloc, has added six members, most of them from the Middle East.

Select Voice

Choose your listening speed

Get through articles 2x faster

1.25x

250 WPM

Slow

Average

Fast

00:0000:00

1.25x