My Take | Putin’s war against Ukraine has emboldened no one but America
- Europe now realises the high costs of conflict while mainland China knows what a ruthless Western proxy war in Taiwan would look like
The West has run two completely contradictory narratives on Ukraine ever since Russia launched its invasion. One is that with steadfast Western support and Ukrainian courage, Vladimir Putin has already lost the war, or is at least losing it fast. The other is that Putin’s invasion has emboldened authoritarians everywhere. Well, they can’t both be true, can they now?
However, many trapped in this narrative matrix are so driven by either moral fervour or virtue-signalling that they hardly notice the absurdity.
The reality is quite the opposite. Whether Putin ends up claiming victory or is defeated – realistically, there will more than likely be no clear-cut victory for either side – the high and (self-)destructive cost of invading someone else’s territory will deter most countries except, of course, the United States!
While a Ukrainian victory looks increasingly out of reach by the day, as its latest counteroffensive has clearly failed, the alleged emboldening of autocrats should really be reduced to the singular; that is, it has always been a not-too-subtle insinuation about mainland China being posed to invade the island of Taiwan, any day now.
Both propositions above are not only contradictory but untrue. No, Putin is not losing the war. But even if he manages to keep some Ukrainian territories and then claim victory, the high costs he imposes on his country and the potential regime change to which he exposes himself is enough to deter many an autocrat.
Except for the Kim regime in North Korea, the few autocratic regimes around are too small to have any significant impact, whatever they do, on the world stage. The domino coups that took place across the Sahel region in Africa may be an irritant to Western interests, but they are manageable. But those Western scaremongering narratives have nothing to do with the Chinese. China is not Russia, and Taiwan is not Ukraine. Their frequent equations or associations are purely the products of Western propaganda and (self-)deception. Why? Ever heard of the saying: the more you possess, the more you are possessed.