South China Morning Post
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Women from the Masakhane township are seen on a coal mine dump at the coal-powered Duvha power station, near Emalahleni, east of Johannesburg, on November 17, 2022. Living in the shadow of one of South Africa’s largest coal-fired power stations, locals fear job losses if the facility is closed as the country moves to cleaner energy. Photo: AP
Opinion
Rizwan Basir
Rizwan Basir

COP28: protect workers’ livelihoods in any green energy transition

  • The global working class is set to lose jobs in industries such as carmaking, or face more exploitative conditions in others, such as mining
  • At COP28, governments must speak up for the masses as there can be no climate justice if they are left to pay for the economic shift
Rizwan Basir
Rizwan Basir
Why you can trust SCMP
The working class must be wary of how rich nations sculpt the narrative around a “just transition” during the COP28 UN climate summit. While grand declarations of climate justice will echo, a grim reality will linger in the shadows of the negotiation rooms – one of mounting joblessness, worker exploitation and back-breaking inflation.

The core assertion of nations touting a just transition is that it is possible to have an energy shift that improves the position of the working class. This, however, is not true. The transition unfolds within capitalism, a system where shifts in the means of production often disadvantage workers instead of empowering them.

The solution isn’t to discard capitalism or to halt the transition altogether – those are lofty ideals. Rather, it’s to sensitise the developed world to the challenges this energy shift might pose, and implement policies to safeguard the livelihoods of those at risk.
It’s crucial to recognise that the shift to alternative solutions isn’t solely propelled by climate urgency; geopolitics also plays a significant role. For instance, a fierce race for dominance in electric vehicles (EVs) is under way. China leads, while the United States and Europe aim to catch up.
In the early 2000s, realising its limited control over global oil production, China bet big on EV technology and critical minerals. Consequently, it now controls 75 per cent of global EV battery production, while also leading in EV sales.
In response, the US and Europe have swiftly initiated critical mineral agreements to boost EV production. But this pursuit of renewable hegemony, often masquerading as a “just transition” driven blindly by national interests, is posing profound challenges for the working class across the globe.

15:52

Middle class in China and US fear losing status

Middle class in China and US fear losing status

Technological progress mustn’t equate to joblessness. It should, instead, elevate well-being by reducing workers’ hours for the same output. Yet within capitalism, workers find themselves entangled in cutthroat competition – a fight to maintain relevance – forcing a significant segment off the playing field altogether.

The automotive sector lays bare this harsh reality. Projections foresee at least half a million autoworkers facing job losses globally by 2040. And while there is hope for the creation of new jobs, there is genuine concern that these may not align with the skill sets of those being displaced, leaving them stranded amid the transition.

The impoverished South might face an even bleaker reality. While EVs have a less labour-intensive assembly process, the critical minerals that go into them require significantly more labour. Millions of workers in the Global South toil in exploitative mining industries that supply these crucial materials.

02:08

Behind the make-up: the illegal child workers in India’s mica mines

Behind the make-up: the illegal child workers in India’s mica mines

Recently, for instance, the US collaborated with Saudi Arabia to secure mining assets valued at US$15 billion in African countries, including the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Guinea and Namibia. Unfortunately, the working conditions for miners in these countries are appalling. In the DRC, for example – a rich source of cobalt for EV batteries – most miners earn less than US$8 per day.

Yet, inadequate wages are just the tip of the iceberg. Human rights organisations have repeatedly uncovered and verified allegations of abuses at such mining sites. These include murders, attacks on communities, safety violations, pandemic-related health breaches, environmental impact and widespread fraud.

With the energy transition, working conditions are anticipated to worsen. Mining companies’ monitoring mechanisms are not keeping up with the rapid exploration expansion, implying that the energy shift may exacerbate abuse in an already troubled sector.

02:30

Nickel boom in Indonesia threatens farmers’ livelihood and natural environment

Nickel boom in Indonesia threatens farmers’ livelihood and natural environment

The unpredictability and lack of readiness within the global energy system could also heighten economic instability and inflationary pressures, especially in the Global South.

This vulnerability was underscored by the US sanctions on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine. In 2021 and 2022, global gas and oil prices rose sharply, causing a ripple effect on various commodities – notably food – given their critical role in the global economy. The abrupt shift strained the market’s adaptability, pushing millions of people in the Global South below the poverty line.

07:58

Why is the Chinese government so concerned about food security?

Why is the Chinese government so concerned about food security?

This could recur. Today, nearly every significant energy analyst foresees not just the persistence of energy price fluctuations during this transition, but a further intensification.

McKinsey & Company, for instance, echoes this sentiment. It reports that energy enterprises will grapple with disturbances stemming from both macroeconomic factors and energy-specific jolts. These include instability in commodity prices, heightened demands to curtail carbon emissions, and disruptions in supply chains.

The climate-vulnerable world is right to advocate for a “just transition”, but caution is necessary. While the idea seems promising, under the current socio-economic structures and ecosystems, these populations will bear the brunt of the change.

03:21

Old mining towns in China left behind despite coal-price boom

Old mining towns in China left behind despite coal-price boom
Remember, although the green transition may be a bitter pill for the rich, the 1 per cent will eventually find alternative avenues of profit extraction, making their transitions relatively manageable. The real challenge lies in the shift of the livelihoods of the masses – those toiling in the mines, coal plants and on oil rigs. Where will they turn once their industries are phased out? Perhaps they will be phased out, too.

To be clear, progress is a necessity not a choice, and renewables are the inevitable future. But at COP28, it is crucial for governments to recognise and champion the plight of the working class and, fundamentally, uphold the balance between “people” and “progress”. For, what good is saving the planet if its people still endure needless suffering?

Rizwan Basir is a sociologist who works as a climate finance specialist at the Climate Resourcing Coordination Centre (CRCC), based in Islamabad, Pakistan

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