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Opinion | South China Sea: only diplomacy can avert open China-Philippines conflict
- Relations between Beijing and Manila keep getting worse as neither side is backing off its maritime claims or military activities in the South China Sea
- While taking a tough stance abroad might yield political dividends at home, both sides urgently need to find a way to peacefully coexist
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“I thought the Philippines was the friend of China,” Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr reportedly said during a spirited exchange earlier this year with China’s envoy in Manila amid rising tensions in the South China Sea.
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In public, the Filipino president has expressed a similar mixture of exasperation and bafflement. “I don’t understand why this happened,” Marcos complained shortly after the Philippine Coast Guard decided to cut a floating barrier installed by Chinese counterparts around the disputed Scarborough Shoal.
While expressing perplexity, Marcos has also taken an increasingly uncompromising stance on the maritime disputes. “What we will do is to continue defending the Philippines, the maritime territory of the Philippines, the rights of our fishermen to catch fish in areas where they have been doing it for hundreds of years already,” he vowed in a nod to a wave of anti-Beijing sentiment at home.
In response to accusations of bullying and environmental destruction in disputed areas, China has scolded the Philippines and demanded it not “stir up trouble” and create “a political drama from fiction”. In a telltale of growing tensions, both sides are conducting maritime drills in the South China Sea to reinforce their claims in the area.
Both nations have shown little sign of backing down so far. If current trends continue, the Philippines and China risk sleepwalking into direct conflict soon. While taking a tough stance abroad might yield political dividends for Filipino and Chinese leaders at home, it is incumbent on them to sincerely pursue a new modus vivendi in the South China Sea.
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Few saw this coming. Just a year ago, the newly elected Marcos signalled broad continuity with his predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte, who proactively courted warm relations with China. Following his first phone conversation with President Xi Jinping, Marcos vowed to shift bilateral ties to a “higher gear”. He reiterated the same position during his meeting with China’s chief diplomat Wang Yi, who welcomed a “new golden era” in bilateral ties.
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