My Take | Ukraine war offers existential lessons for Taiwan and mainland China
- Beijing has learned from the European crisis and may even profit from it, but Tsai Ing-wen and her Democratic Progressive Party have not at all
Every crisis is an opportunity, a learning opportunity. Beijing has taken copious and detailed notes on Russia’s mistakes in invading Ukraine. That means, contrary to self-styled experts in the West, the mainland is unlikely to invade the Taiwanese island unless backed into a corner.
However, Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen and her secessionist Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) are a different story. They have not learned anything. Actually, they have been doubling down with persistent encouragement from Washington. They want to out-Ukraine Ukraine. The only course correction will be from the island’s electorate come January with its legislative and presidential elections. That is likely to be a close call.
By now, it should be clear that Beijing will be extremely cautious when dealing militarily with the island. The only circumstance when it will throw caution to the wind is when Taiwan unmistakably moves towards independence.
Westerners always say Beijing should renounce the use of force once and for all to claim Taiwan. In international politics, you don’t give away something for nothing. Certainly Beijing can renounce force only if Taiwan renounces independence. That seems like a fair trade. In fact, Beijing is willing to accept less than that. All it asks is Taiwan’s recommitment to “one China”. As Tsai and the DPP won’t do that, it’s clear their ultimate goal is secession. In that case, international law sanctions the use of force for a nation to maintain unity and fight breakaway forces.
But Washington propaganda notwithstanding, it’s pretty clear Beijing will do all it can to avoid an invasion or blockade of the island. A mainland-imposed blockade will almost certainly mean a counter-blockade and full-on economic warfare from the West, led by the US.
An amphibious invasion across the Taiwan Strait will be one of the most hazardous and difficult of all military operations. And despite the much-touted modernisation of the People’s Liberation Army, its actual fighting ability is untested. Since 1979, China hasn’t really fought a war. It is, after all, not a trigger-happy nation like the United States.