On BalanceNew Republicans show no restraint as Xi and Biden prepare to meet at Apec

If nothing else emerges at the Apec summit this week in terms of agreement between the leaders of the world’s two largest economies, let’s appreciate that Beijing and Washington were at least able to synchronise the timing of their confirmations that President Xi Jinping and US President Joe Biden would meet. This could become a new symbol of Sino-American cooperation now that the National Zoo’s pandas are gone.

The two sides appear set to announce something on AI usage, but remember how a certain surveillance balloon torpedoed US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s trip to Beijing and the modicum of goodwill both sides had managed to muster. Given the track record of efforts to get the two sides talking, we should not rule out the possibility of a US nuclear submarine surfacing near Hainan Island just as Xi touches down in San Francisco.

Biden administration officials have briefed reporters with fairly frank assessments. The meeting will be “contentious”, and we should expect an agreement to reopen lines of communication to be the highlight. But, with so much political capital having been spent sending high-level officials each way in recent months, let’s assume everyone stays well within bounds.

Much has been made about the setting and choreography of the summit, where we’re more likely to see dissonance. It’s difficult to match the grandeur of Chinese hospitality, so trying to pull together something that is somewhere between a “sideline” meeting and a formal state visit will ensure it won’t be respectful enough for Beijing’s taste or confrontational enough to satisfy many US politicians.

This doesn’t matter, though. Just like the spectacle of a leaderless House of Representatives several weeks ago, there will be plenty on display to show the increasing chances the Republican Party will transform the United States into a country that aligns more with Beijing and Moscow in terms of ideology and governance.

The Washington Post reported last week that Donald Trump, whose nomination as the Republican presidential candidate next year is all but assured, is drafting plans to invoke the Insurrection Act on his first day in office to allow him to deploy the military against civil demonstrations. Consider how far such a plan would go beyond Beijing’s promulgation of Hong Kong’s national security law.