On Balance | Will Trump’s vicious rhetoric ultimately be his undoing in 2024 election?

Until shortly before the holiday, Donald Trump’s run as the Republican Party’s nominee was regarded as the only possible outcome. While he remains well out in front, recent polling shows some crucial changes that might not bode well for Trump’s vicious brand of politics.

Let’s start with candidate Ron DeSantis. Florida’s governor was previously seen as a version of Trump who was capable of pulling in moderate voters uncomfortable with the former president’s rhetorical extremes and the mountains of evidence pointing towards his role in efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 election.

Former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley, Trump’s ambassador to the UN, has gained traction against DeSantis, who is losing some of his most important donors. In Iowa – a key primary state where the Florida’s governor has spent heavily in terms of time and money – she is nearly even with DeSantis. In New Hampshire, another important primary state, she is in second place and rising.

One common criticism of DeSantis is that his inability to connect with voters is undermining his candidacy, but that overlooks the power of Trump’s tactics. The former president tacked further to the right with messaging about the “vermin” he plans to prosecute – i.e. anyone testifying against him – with a newly politicised bureaucracy that will emerge once those respecting the rules of a civilised democracy are frogmarched out of the Justice Department.