In trying to preserve the international order, the US is destroying it
- Overstretched by wars, undermined by fractious politics, and with the dollar, its most powerful tool, sorely overused, America is clinging on to a unipolar world order
- But in putting America first, its leaders are dismantling the world order that Washington helped to build
By 1991, with the collapse of the Soviet Union, the United States had emerged as the unipolar power. After the Soviet-led Warsaw Pact crumbled, Nato was not dissolved. Instead, the old rivalry was rekindled when Russia felt excluded from Europe and treated as the enemy.
From the long lens of history, the US had surpassed Britain as the world’s largest economy and industrial power by 1900. Britain was a small island economy that used its maritime power and “divide and rule” political acumen to master colonies comprising one quarter of the global population.
In contrast, the US is a continental giant guarded by two oceans with no credible neighbourhood threats. Once the European powers had exhausted themselves fighting each other in two world wars, the US emerged as the undisputed hegemon. With its superior industrial might and technology, America could fight two fronts with resources to spare.
The Cold War was never an equal contest, with the US having three times the Soviet gross domestic product in 1950.
In his masterly 1987 treatise, The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers, Yale historian Paul Kennedy saw the US facing a decline. How long it can remain top dog is open to question, as is whether it can retain the economic and technological bases of its power.
In the latest issue of Foreign Affairs, CNN commentator Fareed Zakaria weighed the options of the “self-doubting superpower”, arguing that “America shouldn’t give up on the world it made”, while Hoover Institution fellow Philip Zelikow gave a realistic review of how American statecraft has atrophied, particularly in respect of industrial capacity.
The Ukraine war unveiled all the weaknesses of the neoliberal foundations of free trade, finance, supply chains and international relations, showing that no country can determine its fate independent of its history, geography and demography. The West (US and Europe) is overstretched in defending its allies in Ukraine and Israel, in terms of funding and supply of arms.
Can Ukraine rely on the West to supply the arms in a war of attrition?
The power game is always for the No 1 to lose, though not necessarily for the rivals to take. So far, we don’t even know whether the Biden leadership knows what the plot is really all about.
Andrew Sheng is a former central banker who writes on global issues from an Asian perspective