Opinion | South China Sea: return to dialogue vital for China-Philippines ties

Philippines faces a lonely battle as China shores up cooperation with other claimant states and improving Sino-US relations puts pressure on Manila’s aggressiveness

If the Philippines is willing to return to the right track and jointly manage maritime disputes, China can reopen consultation with the Philippines

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A Chinese Coast Guard ship uses water cannon on a Philippine supply boat as it approaches Second Thomas Shoal in the disputed South China Sea, on December 10. Photo: Handout from Philippine Coast Guard via AP

Published: 7:30pm, 1 Jan 2024Updated: 8:49pm, 1 Jan 2024

With China-Philippines relations at a crossroads, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told his Philippine counterpart, Enrique Manalo, during a December 20 telephone call, that “faced with the choice of what path to follow, the Philippines must act with caution”. He added: “China has always been committed to resolving disputes through dialogue and consultation and jointly safeguarding maritime stability.”

Wang also emphasised that, should the Philippines misjudge the situation, persist in its course or collude with external forces to foment trouble, China would “defend its rights in accordance with law and respond resolutely”.

Wang’s statement conveyed two explicit messages. First, it served as a warning to the Philippines that any escalation or persistence in provocation in the South China Sea would not be tolerated. China will respond with full vigour and take all necessary countermeasures.

Water cannon attacks, for instance, criticised by the Philippines as a dangerous manoeuvre, might become customary in disputed waters should the Philippines persist in increasing tensions or attempt to involve external actors in maritime disputes.

The second message is that Beijing will strengthen its relations with other claimant states and Asean members such as Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia – leaving the Philippines to fight a lonely battle.

China has been drawing closer to these three countries as part of efforts to foster a community with a shared future. There were three significant state visits: Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim in Beijing in March, Indonesian President Joko Widodo in Beijing in October, and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Hanoi in December. Importantly, these high-level diplomatic engagements occurred after tensions erupted between China and the Philippines in February.

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