South China Sea: return to dialogue vital for China-Philippines ties

Philippines faces a lonely battle as China shores up cooperation with other claimant states and improving Sino-US relations puts pressure on Manila’s aggressiveness
If the Philippines is willing to return to the right track and jointly manage maritime disputes, China can reopen consultation with the Philippines

Nian Peng

Published: 7:30pm, 1 Jan 2024

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With China-Philippines relations at a crossroads, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told his Philippine counterpart, Enrique Manalo, during a December 20 telephone call, that “faced with the choice of what path to follow, the Philippines must act with caution”. He added: “China has always been committed to resolving disputes through dialogue and consultation and jointly safeguarding maritime stability.”

Wang also emphasised that, should the Philippines misjudge the situation, persist in its course or collude with external forces to foment trouble, China would “defend its rights in accordance with law and respond resolutely”.

Wang’s statement conveyed two explicit messages. First, it served as a warning to the Philippines that any escalation or persistence in provocation in the South China Sea would not be tolerated. China will respond with full vigour and take all necessary countermeasures.

Water cannon attacks, for instance, criticised by the Philippines as a dangerous manoeuvre, might become customary in disputed waters should the Philippines persist in increasing tensions or attempt to involve external actors in maritime disputes.

The second message is that Beijing will strengthen its relations with other claimant states and Asean members such as Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia – leaving the Philippines to fight a lonely battle.

China has been drawing closer to these three countries as part of efforts to foster a community with a shared future. There were three significant state visits: Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim in Beijing in March, Indonesian President Joko Widodo in Beijing in October, and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Hanoi in December. Importantly, these high-level diplomatic engagements occurred after tensions erupted between China and the Philippines in February.

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Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia have all expressed their willingness to work with China towards the maintenance of peace and stability in the South China Sea.

It is worth noting that these three countries have neither responded to the Philippine proposal for a separate code of conduct in the disputed waters nor become part of the Philippines’ recent provocative actions against China. This is significant because all three also have separate contesting claims with China.

It is evident that the other claimants harbour no intention of provoking China in the South China Sea. Instead, they are committed to fostering economic cooperation and diplomatic engagement with China, aiming to advance economic growth and social stability within their respective territories.

In addition, positive trends have emerged in China‒US relations in recent months, exemplified by the China-US summit in San Francisco in November and restoration of full military communication in December. The underlining of non-confrontation and non-conflict as foundational principles for China‒US relations also underscores expectations that both countries will pragmatically manage their competition, preventing tensions from escalating.

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Against this backdrop, the Philippines’ aggressive behaviour in the South China Sea would be discouraged by the United States to some extent. As Manalo said during his call with Wang, he hoped to manage disputes in a way that is acceptable to both sides, to relieve tensions and prevent conflict in the South China Sea.

More recently, in an interview with Japanese media, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr pointed out that despite US assistance, the maritime dispute with China is “a purely Filipino concern” and that Manila considers it “a Philippine problem and we intend to solve that problem ourselves”.

Perhaps the Philippines has come to realise the serious consequences of US military involvement in the South China Sea and is trying to keep some distance between itself and the US in its territorial disputes with China.

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Notably, China has not closed the door to dialogue. If the Philippines is willing to return to the right track and jointly manage maritime disputes, China can reopen consultation with the Philippines.

In response to Wang’s advice on dialogue, Manalo said he hoped to strengthen dialogue with China in good faith, give full play to the role of communication mechanisms in maritime issues between the two countries, and jointly seek solutions to problems, according to the Chinese readout. In his short official statement, Manalo described his conversation with Wang as a “frank and candid exchange”.

Both sides also agreed to soon hold a meeting of the bilateral consultation mechanism on the South China Sea.

While the phone call between the two foreign ministers was significant in breaking the ice, improved bilateral ties will depend on the outcome of the coming dialogue between the two sides.

Despite the thaw, several Philippine actions continue to concern China, such as the activation of a newly installed Japanese-made radar system by the Philippine navy on the day of the phone call, to monitor vessel activities in the South China Sea. At the ceremony, Philippines’ defence minister Gilberto Teodoro strongly refuted China’s criticism that the Philippines had provoked tensions.

It would appear that while the Philippines is worried about growing tensions with China, it is not softening its position on the South China Sea to avoid appearing weak.

To conclude, it is too early to say if China-Philippine relations will improve as a result of the Wang-Manalo phone call. Factors including factionalism within Marcos Jnr’s cabinet and the role of the US could affect the Philippines’ China policy, putting relations on an uncertain trajectory. Hopefully, both sides can minimise internal and external interferences, and expedite the normalisation process.

Nian Peng is director of the Research Center for Asian Studies (RCAS), Hong Kong