Instead of criticising Hong Kong’s system, Taiwan should keep its options open
- For those who don’t want reunification, painting Hong Kong in a bad light helps them argue against Beijing’s ‘one country, two systems’ solution
- But rather than denigrate Hong Kong, Taiwanese politicians should wish it well – a flourishing city can provide an idea of what might be for Taiwan
Beijing sees Taiwan as Chinese territory and the visit by Pelosi, who was then America’s third-ranking politician, suggested the United States was giving tacit recognition to the island’s sovereignty. The one-China principle forms the basis of China’s diplomatic relations with other countries; the principle is also the United Nations’ affirmed position.
The US regularly accuses Beijing of being aggressive by holding military exercises near Taiwan, although US naval ships and planes frequent the same area. Yet the US military has a chain of over 310 airbases and military ports surrounding China. No wonder Beijing is sensitive and sees the US provocations as a key security threat.
Meanwhile, China’s neighbours are concerned about higher risk levels because military mishaps could turn into outright conflict. Even countries further afield have skin in the game because, without peace, there can be no development.
How the US-China chip war is dismantling Taiwan’s silicon shield
The “I win, you lose” approach does not in fact guarantee victory – the affected private-sector companies have to suck up losses, while China has to work triply hard to develop its capabilities.
Taiwan is not unaware of how the US sees the island. When former US national security adviser Robert O’Brien visited Taipei last year, he suggested that one million AK47-wielding Taiwanese “around every corner” and “in every apartment block” would be useful in fighting off mainland troops. But it’s doubtful that this is what the Taiwanese want.
Taiwanese politicians should not denigrate Hong Kong’s situation too loudly. As the US and China continue to tussle on many fronts, Hong Kong will have to find its own way of surviving and prospering.
A Hong Kong doing badly under “one country, two systems” won’t really help Taiwan. But a Hong Kong doing well can at least provide an idea of what could be for Taiwan, on a bigger and more attractive scale.
Taiwan should reflect on Kissinger’s warning to the US not to edge towards war, the conditions for which it has partly created “without any concept of how this is going to end or what it’s supposed to lead to”. Taiwan should be wise and keep its options open with Beijing.
Christine Loh is chief development strategist at the Institute for the Environment, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, and a visiting scholar at Anderson School of Management, UCLA