My Take | New presidents in Washington, Taipei may be worse for Beijing
- China has benefited from crises in Ukraine and the Middle East, but as both wind down get ready for some dangerous times back in the Pacific
US President Joe Biden inherited a foreign policy calamity in Afghanistan from his predecessors. He managed to make an exit, even though it was messy and ignominious. But he then became involved in more disasters, in Ukraine and Palestine.
The former has pushed Russia straight into the arms of China, something that has been a cardinal rule of traditional US statecraft to prevent since the Cold War. The latter conflict has earned Biden, not undeservedly, the moniker “Genocide Joe”, with the United States’ arming of Israel.
Both misadventures have distracted Washington from its pivot to Asia, as in containing China, which has enjoyed a measure of respite as a result. President Xi Jinping should count himself fortunate as Beijing was more or less able to concentrate on addressing the troubles the Chinese economy is facing.
Moreover, the leaders in South Korea and Japan, staunch US allies both, have proved to be extremely unpopular at home. That means neither could muster public support for any large-scale or sustained anti-China initiatives in coordination with Washington.
But while Beijing has made the most of its luck and may even pretend to have scored a few diplomatic victories, the good times won’t last.
The next administration in Washington, whether Democrat or Republican, will want to make up for lost time and recommit to the Asian pivot. This means it will encourage partners and allies in Asia to provoke China, as it has already started with the Philippines under the pro-American Ferdinand Marcos Jr.