My Take | China’s bleak demographic picture calls for decisive action from Beijing

China’s latest population data paints a deeply worrying demographic picture. Despite Beijing’s policy relaxation, births in the country slid to 9.02 million in 2023, the lowest level for 74 years.

Some demographers say this birth number might be the lowest since the mid-18th century. In other words, China’s birth rate has plunged to lower levels than those prevailing during years of famine, war and social turmoil in the country, indicating extreme reluctance to have children.

Secondly, China’s total population has dropped 2.08 million, bigger than a fall of 850,000 in 2022. Losing two million people is a bit like erasing two medium-sized cities from the map.

The data confirms a long-term trend that China’s population has peaked, with some now predicting a chronic decline – with a dramatic fall in the size of the country’s population and an accelerated rate of decline.

Thirdly, China is greying quickly. By the end of 2023, the country had almost 300 million people aged above 60, or 21.1 per cent of the total population.

The ageing process is faster than previous estimates. Research by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in 2022 predicted that the rate would be “around 20 per cent” by the end of 2025. Instead, the era of “getting old before getting rich” is already here.