Opinion | What the Marcos-Duterte feud means for the Philippines, US and China

The gloves are off between President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr and his predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte, their oft-rumoured rift seemingly laid bare. The vaunted Uniteam alliance that swept Marcos Jnr into power lies in tatters, as both factions vie to shore up support ahead of elections. In the run-up to the important midterm senate and congressional elections next year, the outlook for the political atmosphere and the country is deteriorating fast.

But as much as the feud exposes the vagaries of the Philippines’ fascination with dynastic rule, the outcome will also affect Manila’s crucial position in the geopolitical chess between the US and China in the South China Sea. Amid what is set to become a titanic struggle, the Philippines runs the risk of serious instability down the road that could upend regional geopolitics.

If Marcos prevails, the Philippines is likely to remain an undiminished ally of Washington. If Duterte emerges victorious, Beijing may have pulled off a geopolitical fool’s mate that could see it emboldened. Given Beijing’s response to Marcos Jnr’s congratulation of Taiwan’s new leader, it is clear Beijing would like to see the back of Marcos. The trouble is, for all the courting of Beijing, Duterte had little to show in economic terms.

Marcos has unapologetically ditched Duterte’s largely China-friendly foreign policy, instead firmly locking the Philippines in a pro-US embrace. That policy reversal has increasingly drawn the ire of Beijing amid a distinct ratcheting up of tensions in the disputed West Philippine Sea and growing unease over Beijing’s hardline approach to Taiwan.

By expanding defence ties with the US, Marcos has placed the Philippines front and centre of strained US-China relations, critics say, a development that could render the country a target in any conflict.