Opinion | What lies in wait for Xi and Putin in the Year of the Dragon?

Both leaders will be emboldened by a divided and distracted West but they will also have to wrestle with economic vulnerabilities

Xi will watch closely Russia’s progress in Ukraine and its overtures to North Korea, while Putin will be nervous about losing any Chinese support

Reading Time:4 minutes

Published: 5:30am, 6 Feb 2024Updated: 5:51am, 6 Feb 2024

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping will enter the Year of the Dragon emboldened but weakened.

Emboldened by the resilience of their countries in the face of growing Western pressure, and the tacit support of the geopolitical “swing states” of the Global South. And quietly confident that the Western resolve to confront, contain and compete with Moscow and Beijing is being diluted by elections, and political and societal divisions.

But behind the bravado, Xi and Putin will greet the New Lunar Year weakened by the vulnerabilities in their economies, which have lost, or are losing, access to Western markets, technologies and investment. China’s glow as the world’s most dynamic economy and Russia’s credentials as an energy superpower are fading.

Putin faces a presidential election in March and has made the Ukraine war a centrepiece of his re-election. But most Russians are ambivalent or annoyed about his war campaign. Reconciling the fears of the inward-looking electorate with the overblown war rhetoric will be a challenge, even for such a masterful political narrator. Still, Putin’s win in March is guaranteed. His victory in Ukraine is far from certain.

Ukraine’s failed counteroffensive and uncertainty about Western support for Kyiv has given Putin a confidence boost. And Russia’s overhauled military production gives his army a superiority in ammunition. Putin is also closely watching elections in the West, hoping war fatigue and a swing to the right further weakens Western support.

But a change of leadership in Washington and London may not be enough to turn the West away. Ukraine will not surrender. A stalemate is the best scenario for Putin this year.

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