Opinion | Houthi Red Sea crisis serves China’s main goal: undermining the US

Chinese policy in the Middle East is shaped by two factors: China’s threat perceptions and its strategic calculus regarding its great-power competition with the United States. And when it comes to dealing with the US, China’s approach comes down to three “noes”: no cooperation, no support and no confrontation. This credo underlies China’s decision not to push back against the Iran-backed Houthis as they carry out drone and missile attacks on Red Sea shipping lanes.

The Red Sea attacks – a response to Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza – have not directly threatened Chinese ships, and the Houthis insist this will not change. Neither Chinese nor Russian vessels will be targeted, a senior Houthi official declared last month, as long as they are not connected with Israel. But the attacks will still affect China’s economic interests, and not only because of the need to avoid links with Israel. COSCO, China’s largest shipping conglomerate, has already been forced to suspend all shipping to Israel, owing to security concerns.

The identification of ships or their flag countries is not always straightforward, and shipping that affects China’s interests can still be targeted. But avoiding the area is costly. The Red Sea is one of the most sensitive choke points for world trade. If Chinese ships heading to Europe must circle around the Cape of Good Hope, rather than following the traditional route through the Suez Canal, a 26-day journey grows to 36 days and adds significantly to costs.

Longer shipping routes could also raise import prices, potentially fuelling inflation in China. If oil prices are affected, China’s economy – already in the doldrums – will come under even more pressure. More broadly, continued shipping disruptions will hamper China’s efforts to boost its economy by strengthening external trade.

So whether they target Chinese vessels directly or not, Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping could undermine China’s economic recovery. And things could get much worse: if Iran deepens its involvement in the conflict between the Houthis and the US-led coalition that is launching strikes against them, the Strait of Hormuz could be affected, threatening China’s energy supplies.

Yet, for now, China does not seem to be treating the threat posed by the Houthis as either immediate or acute. Yes, Chinese officials have reportedly urged their Iranian counterparts to pressure the Houthis to curb their attacks. But while China has some influence over Iran, it hardly controls Iranian policy. Neither is Iran fully in control of the Houthis, despite being their main backer. Given this – and contrary to what the US apparently thinks – China’s ability to rein in the Houthis diplomatically is limited.