Hong Kong can look forward to spring with an air of hope
- Closer look at expectations of Financial Secretary Paul Chan and message from Lunar New Year fortune stick ritual recall spirit of city and why it should never give up as it tackles challenges ahead
Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po regularly shares his latest views on Hong Kong’s economic fortunes, but there is just one chance to compare those with the prophecy of the fortune stick drawn in an annual ritual on the second day of the Lunar New Year. At first glance in the Year of the Dragon they seemed not to be in harmony. But, on deeper reflection they were not too far apart. Before the ritual, Chan said the economy was expected to improve this year, thanks to an expected fall in interest rates and favourable conditions. After the event, he added that pre-budget consultations showed residents did not see handouts, such as consumption vouchers, as necessary for economic stability.
The “neutral” No 15 fortune stick, drawn by Heung Yee Kuk chairman Kenneth Lau Ip-keung on Sunday, said Hong Kong was trapped in a forest … waiting for the arrival of spring. According to Lau’s interpretation, the city is seen as needing more precise policies to boost its economy. After the ceremony he added: “Spring will come but the government should not waste time and resources.”
Lau warned authorities against waiting for the United States to cut interest rates before implementing new policies. “We need to be more precise and timely,” he said, emphasising the need for the city to stabilise the real estate and finance industries, the pillars of its economy, before developing the innovation and technology sector.
Hong Kong’s economy expected to improve in Year of the Dragon: Paul Chan
It appears Chan and the prophecy are not that far from being on the same page. After all, he noted the importance of the consumption of goods and services to economic recovery. Singling out tourism as requiring more targeted policies such as those mentioned by Lau, Chan said the city would have to improve the quality of its services and experiences to encourage tourists to return.
Hong Kong has a lot going for it as an international hub of finance and trade, such as the rule of law and free flow of information. There is no question that, after the triple whammy of social unrest, Covid-19 and rising interest rates, the city is facing its share of challenges and difficulties in fully recovering its economic vibrancy. In this regard Chan and the fortune stick offer complementary messages.
With interest rates set to enter a downward cycle and more consumption vouchers not anticipated, Chan is expecting greater stability. With realistic expectations on the part of residents, the government must work harder to deliver real gains and take the city forward. This plays into the fortune stick interpretation that more precise policies are needed. As for the city awaiting the arrival of spring, according to the stick, this should be seen as hope in the spirit of Lunar New Year – celebrating the coming of spring and never giving up hope for a better future. Hong Kong, too, should never give up regardless of the challenges it is now facing.
