Myanmar’s junta is running out of time to make progress on Asean peace plan
- As the government is squeezed by internal opposition and external isolation, the fear is that it will take even more drastic measures to stay in power
- To avoid a deepening of the crisis, the junta must show a willingness to end all violence and cooperate with other regional leaders
The execution of political prisoners marks a deepening of the political and humanitarian crisis. With Cambodia serving as chair of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations for 2022, Hun Sen visited Myanmar earlier this year in an attempt to engage the regime. He later urged junta chief General Min Aung Hlaing to reconsider the death sentences.
The course of the debate on Myanmar will largely be determined by the junta’s capabilities, which, according to some analysts, are in decline. Constant fighting with ethnic armed groups and the NUG’s “People’s Defence Force” has drained the junta of its human resources and ammunition.
The first is that, as the junta struggles with a resource crunch and diplomatic isolation, it will take an increasingly aggressive posture. This may mean more executions, hasty arms deals or large-scale extortions. As a result, internal migration will intensify and border regions will be destabilised. This would no doubt be alarming for neighbouring countries like India, Bangladesh and Thailand.
The junta leaders miscalculated the level of public outrage following their 2021 coup, and deployed force to quell protests. External observers who predicted that the regime would stay in power long-term now believe its mistakes will cost it the seat of Naypyidaw.
The People’s Defence Force and ethnic armed groups have shown they are prepared to fight until the regime is deposed. Hence, even if the junta continues to rule, it would be able to do so only in a limited capacity and in certain territories.
This throws open the question of how long the regime’s friends in Russia and China will continue to provide arms. If the junta’s power begins to fragment, Beijing and Moscow may not find it useful to sustain an increasingly unpopular regime.
In a second scenario, which is also a consequence of the first, the junta will find it impossible to stay in power. With weakening capabilities and external confidence, the junta’s domestic stakeholders, such as big businesses, will start looking elsewhere.
Onus is on Asean to deal with Myanmar
This could lead to an internal collapse of the regime and push Myanmar into a large-scale scattered civil war. The involvement of foreign proxies is likely, given a reported lack of consensus between armed ethnic groups and the People’s Defence Force, which would make it difficult for the NUG to legitimately govern.
The fear is that Myanmar will end up like Afghanistan in the 1990s, ruled by brutal regional militant factions, making it a fertile ground for terrorist organisations to emerge.
Akash Sahu is a research analyst at the New Delhi-based Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses