As US-China suspicion grows, Taiwan Strait instability could be the new normal

China assumes the US is ‘hollowing out’ its China policy and will eventually seek to prevent Taiwan unification
On the other hand, Washington believes Beijing will use force to achieve unification despite preferring a peaceful solution

Yun Sun

Published: 1:30am, 4 Sep 2022

Why you can trust SCMP

Beijing’s military reaction to US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan last month, including the unprecedented show of force around the island, has triggered many different interpretations.

Many see the actions as “premeditated”. Some even see them as the result of a decision to abandon peaceful unification before Pelosi’s visit, which merely provided a trigger. The new Taiwan white paper further reinforced the belief that Beijing’s priority has shifted from deterring independence to forcing unification.

The interpretation of China’s policy has always been a delicate matter, complicated by the lack of perfect information. Many assumptions are made, such as about President Xi Jinping’s determination to achieve unification as his legacy.

They introduce speculation that translates into deeply entrenched beliefs, such as the existence of a timetable for unification. Beliefs form the context of US policy reactions. The distinctions between reality and belief are often lost.

For example, concrete evidence for the assumption that Xi “must” achieve unification under his leadership, or during his third term, is nonexistent. And why would China set a deadline to deprive itself of flexibility and back itself into a corner?

Given the deterioration of US-China relations and increasing strategic competition, the lack of trust prompts each to assume the worst intentions of the other, including planning for the worst-case scenario on the Taiwan issue.

01:14

CIA chief says Beijing appears determined to ‘use force to control Taiwan’

China assumes the United States is “hollowing out” its China policy and will eventually seek to prevent unification. The US assumes China will use force to achieve unification despite its preference for a peaceful solution, and after such unification by force, Taiwan would be the next “victim” of “one country, two systems”.

It is going to be difficult to assess whether Pelosi’s visit is only the latest event on the continuum of a downward spiral or a watershed that ushers in a new era. The reality is that it could be both.

People speculate that the People’s Liberation Army activities will become a new normal. It might be true but the PLA routinely conducted exercises around Taiwan even before the visit and whether it will repeat them so close to Taiwan remains to be seen.

03:50

Mainland China white paper declares ‘greatest sincerity’ for peaceful reunification with Taiwan

Another perceived new development is the demonstrated determination in the Taiwan white paper that unification “must” be achieved. However, how to achieve this is a question that has been asked for more than seven decades, so reflecting on strategies and policies, what’s new is unclear.

Some might say the answer lies in the PLA’s capabilities – and that is true. But knowing the costs and ungovernability of Taiwan after a military takeover, it is inconceivable that Beijing would see the use of force as a preferred approach.

When discussing a mainland “attack” on Taiwan, people tend to forget that China’s policy is not made in a vacuum and that the action/reaction cycle matters critically. The actions that the US and Taiwan take have a significant impact on Beijing’s calculus.

Why China must respond to every Taiwan taunt

The belief that everything Beijing does is destabilising and everything Washington and Taipei do are stabilising is being challenged by more observers. Beijing may not see the use of force as a preferred approach for unification. But if it believes US support is leading to Taiwan’s potential de jure independence, using force to deter independence is not going to be different from using force for unification in terms of the result.

It is curious to say that the use of force could be Beijing’s preferred strategy. Even if it could win the military campaign, which is a big “if”, the economic and human cost would be significant.

More importantly, how could Beijing govern the island and its population with legitimacy after imposing such tremendous loss and human tragedy? Beijing knows perfectly well the stigma the Kuomintang still suffers in Taiwan from the historical baggage of the “228 incident”.

03:13

Taiwan showcases fighter jets as mainland China’s war games continue following Pelosi visit

Beijing would face unthinkable difficulties in governing an unfamiliar and hostile territory under military occupation. No matter how much Beijing preaches the shared bloodline with Taiwan, together with common prosperity, Taiwan would become an ulcer.

In the era of great power competition, much of the US’ policy towards Taiwan is entrenched in deep domestic divisions and political struggle. The executive branch feels compelled not only by the Republican Party, but also by bipartisan consensus on Capitol Hill, to increase support for Taiwan.

Some voices have gone as far as to call for the US to abandon the one-China policy and support Taiwan independence. These actions, if taken, would in all likelihood lead to a real military contingency in the Taiwan Strait, one that people claim to want to avoid.

As these trends develop, a “new normal” of escalating tensions and instability will probably descend on the Taiwan Strait.

Yun Sun is a senior fellow and co-director of the East Asia Programme and director of the China Programme at the Stimson Center