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President Joe Biden walks to the Quad summit with (from left) Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, in the East Room of the White House, on September 24 in Washington. Photo: AP
Opinion
C. Uday Bhaskar
C. Uday Bhaskar

After Aukus, the Quad’s quiet resolve gives China much to think about

  • The latest Quad summit can be seen as a preliminary effort by the US and its partners to rewire the discourse on regional security and policy priorities for the Indo-Pacific
  • However, following the strong signalling of Aukus, the Quad has steadfastly avoided finger-wagging
The first in-person Quad summit hosted by US President Joe Biden in Washington concluded last week with the leaders of the United States, India, Japan and Australia issuing a comprehensive joint statement – which, at 2,074 words, is also very detailed.
This joint format is significant, considering that the earlier summit in March led to the four nations opting for individual statements – indicating that the Quad, formally known as the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, had yet to cohere and harmonise its collective objectives.

That uncertainty and tentativeness has been set aside. Even while reiterating familiar themes and principles, the latest Quad statement exudes a quiet Biden-led resolve and collective intent that may provide some cues as to how the prevailing flux in the global strategic and security environment will be shaped.

The vision outlined is lofty: “On this historic occasion we recommit to our partnership, and to a region that is a bedrock of our shared security and prosperity – a free and open Indo-Pacific, which is also inclusive and resilient.”

Reference to a “free and open Indo-Pacific” has been doing the rounds for years in many regional deliberations, and has come into sharper focus since China started flexing its maritime muscle and intimidating or coercing smaller neighbours in maritime disputes.

Beijing has its own interpretation of historical maritime claims. Consequently, the waters of the Indo-Pacific have been muddied.

The virtual Quad summit in March also alluded to a “free and open Indo-Pacific” but the latest statement is more definitive and resolute:

“Together, we recommit to promoting the free, open, rules-based order, rooted in international law and undaunted by coercion, to bolster security and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific and beyond. We stand for the rule of law, freedom of navigation and overflight, peaceful resolution of disputes, democratic values, and territorial integrity of states.”

The subtext is specific. The reference to being “undaunted by coercion” is directed at Beijing and its “wolf warrior” diplomatic stance but, interestingly, the word “China” does not occur in the statement – except in reference to the South China Sea.

03:23

The South China Sea dispute explained

The South China Sea dispute explained

In summary, the Quad summit could be seen as a preliminary effort by the US and its partners to rewire the discourse on regional security and policy priority for the Indo-Pacific.

Thus, the spectrum of issues identified have been clustered under the 3Cs umbrella – the Covid-19 crisis, climate change, and China – and the emphasis is on non-military cooperation for better human security in the Indo-Pacific.
It is worth remembering that the Quad nations first came together organically in December 2004 to render help and relief after the tsunami that ravaged many parts of the Indian Ocean region.
With the Covid-19 pandemic and climate change, an enormous global effort is needed just to manage the fallout, yet the international response has been tepid and the divisions within the United Nations are illustrative.

02:45

‘China has never and will never invade or bully others’, Xi tells UN General Assembly

‘China has never and will never invade or bully others’, Xi tells UN General Assembly
With more than 4 million Covid-19 deaths globally and the disastrous consequences of climate change and global warming being felt, it is encouraging that the Quad has at least brought these issues onto the policy radar.
As for China, which is of abiding concern to all four Quad nations and some Asean states, the September 15 announcement of the Aukus security alliance between Australia, the UK and the US has sent a strong signal of intent about how the maritime/naval environment will be shaped by the US and its allies.
At the core of Aukus is the radical decision by the Biden administration to enable Canberra to acquire eight nuclear-propelled submarines over the next few years.

03:51

US, UK, Australia announce ‘historic’ military partnership in Pacific

US, UK, Australia announce ‘historic’ military partnership in Pacific

Beijing reacted angrily, rattled at the long-term naval implications of the move. Once the Royal Australian Navy acquires the nuclear subs, the underwater domain of the Indo-Pacific will be even more constrained for China’s navy.

The Chinese navy faces unfavourable geography along its east coast (its only access to the Pacific Ocean) and is further inhibited by the prevailing East Asian geopolitical grid. Aukus will add to this operational challenge.

The Aukus announcement and Quad summit come against the backdrop of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan and the annual UN General Assembly deliberations, which in different ways reflect the global strategic and security flux, and major power dissonance.

02:47

US ‘not seeking a new cold war’, Biden says in first UN address

US ‘not seeking a new cold war’, Biden says in first UN address
Biden has told the UN that the US does not want another Cold War; China appears to be studying the tea leaves carefully.

An intractable contradiction that could act as insurance against any kind of impulsive policy lurch in the Indo-Pacific is embedded in the geoeconomics vs geostrategic compulsions for the principal interlocutors.

Pertinently, the five Quad and Aukus nations were among China’s top 13 trading partners last year. Ensuring the stability of this interdependency is vital for their national well-being and the political fortunes of the current leadership, including President Xi Jinping.

The Quad has steadfastly avoided finger-wagging and the orientation is persuasive. One hopes that Beijing can arrive at an equitable modus vivendi with its Indo-Pacific interlocutors in the run-up to the 75th anniversary of the People’s Republic of China.

Commodore C. Uday Bhaskar is director of the Society for Policy Studies (SPS), an independent think tank based in New Delhi

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