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The Philippines
Opinion
Richard Heydarian

Opinion | US-Philippines alliance back on track as Duterte’s China charm offensive crumbles

  • After years of Duterte pledging separation from the US and courting China’s friendship, Manila and Washington appear to be on good terms again
  • Unfulfilled Chinese promises, maritime incidents involving Chinese vessels and strong pro-US advocacy within the government have changed Duterte’s foreign policy

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Illustration: Craig Stephens

The more things change, the more they stay the same. In many ways, this is the story of the US-Philippines alliance which, following a few turbulent years of diplomatic acrimony, is rapidly returning to form.

Five years ago, Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte threatened to end his country’s century-old alliance with Washington. Amid diplomatic rows over human rights issues, he even cussed at then US president Barack Obama.
But Duterte has entered his twilight months in office with a radically different tone and strategic predisposition. He openly thanked US President Joe Biden for pandemic-related help, restored the all-important Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) and oversaw an upgrade in bilateral defence cooperation.
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The Philippines military chief recently announced that, not only are the Balikatan joint military drills set to return in “full scale”, but the two allies are expected to conduct more than 300 joint defence activities and exercises next year. That is by far the largest in both countries’ history and among the most in America’s long roster of Indo-Pacific allies.

When Duterte first came to power, few took seriously his promise to overhaul foreign policy. Yet, even before his election, the Filipino populist had repeatedly signalled his preference for a pivot to China at the expense of traditional alliances, especially with the United States.

01:05

‘China has the arms, we do not’, Duterte rules out confronting Beijing in the South China Sea

‘China has the arms, we do not’, Duterte rules out confronting Beijing in the South China Sea

Aside from his personal grievances and ideological antipathy towards Washington, which has dominated military affairs in his home island of Mindanao, this was also about strategic pragmatism.

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