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US Federal Reserve
Opinion
Barry Wood

Opinion | Inflation, not a repeat of the ‘taper tantrum’, is the new enemy

  • The Federal Reserve must act to ensure stable prices. Global markets need to hear that rates are heading higher and that the US is determined to forestall inflation as it moves to restore financial stability

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A customer shops at Steve’s 9th Street Market in Brooklyn, New York, on May 12. Inflation has risen to a 13-year high of 5.4 per cent. Photo: Xinhua
Warning lights are flashing in the United States – petrol prices are up by more than 40 per cent, home prices are surging, the labour market is tight and supply disruptions are creating shortages. Inflation has risen to a 13-year high of 5.4 per cent. Unless the US Federal Reserve scales back monetary stimulus, the economy will move dangerously close to a treadmill of spiralling inflation.

To be clear, since the Covid-19 pandemic struck early last year, the Fed has done the right thing. It acted quickly in March last year to bring interest rates down, rolling out vast amounts of cash. These bold actions calmed financial markets and reassured an anxious public that a health emergency would not drive down living standards.

There is no overstating the danger that was faced. World Bank chief economist Carmen Reinhart looked at the worldwide shutdown and warned of a global depression. Fed chairman Jerome Powell called the pandemic the greatest shock to the economy “in living memory”.

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The combination of generous government support, remote working and Covid-19 vaccines saved the day even as a new variant threatened the recovery that has taken hold.
But inflation is the new enemy at the gates and the Fed must act to fulfil its mandate of assuring price stability. The obvious first step is scaling back the US$120 billion monthly bond-buying programme that keeps interest rates very low.

Speaking in mid-October, former treasury secretary and long-time Democrat Larry Summers expressed “very considerable concern” at the ultra-lax monetary policy, surging house prices and exploding budget deficit. “We’re in more danger than we’ve been during my career of losing control of inflation,” said Summers.

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