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Opinion | Why 2024 just might be the year for alternative candidates in the US

  • Polls show Americans are not excited about the leading presidential candidates running in the two major parties
  • Increased polarisation and threats to democracy could push voters to consider third-party or independent challengers

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Presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jnr speaks during a campaign event on October 9, 2023. Photo: AP
An election rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump probably feels like déjà vu for many voters in the United States. Enthusiasm for such a face-off is rather low. Yet, despite Americans’ alleged desire for a third party or independent to break the binary electoral pattern, their votes seldom reflect this preference.
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A key factor behind this reality is that political success in American elections is generally determined by the ability to mobilise resources such as money, organisational support and media coverage.

Third-party and independent candidates often struggle to compete with major parties when it comes to fundraising and accessing resources. Another significant challenge is the electoral system itself, which favours politicians from the two main parties. Candidates such as Ralph Nader and Jill Stein have struggled to gain momentum in presidential elections.

However, in the 2024 US presidential election, one candidate could make a difference: Robert F. Kennedy Jnr. Polls indicate that Kennedy, who withdrew from the Democratic Party primaries and is now running as an independent, has a potential vote share of up to 15 per cent against his rivals.

Amid a polarised political climate, Kennedy could find more support from the public. According to a recent Economist/YouGov report, Kennedy is among the most liked figures in national politics. Forty-seven per cent of Americans view him positively while 35 per cent have a negative view.

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In the same report, 49 per cent of respondents have a positive view of Trump as opposed to 48 per cent who view him negatively. Conversely, 42 per cent view Biden positively while 54 per cent hold a negative view of the president.

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