Then president Donald Trump is applauded by his ambassador to Israel David Friedman and White House senior adviser Jared Kushner on August 13, 2020. Photo: Reuters
Opinion
Burak Elmali
Burak Elmali
Peace in the Middle East? Not if Trump gets re-elected
The former US president has a track record of helping Israel at the Palestinians’ expense
If he wins a second term, Donald Trump’s foreign policy could lead to increased warfare in the region
US President Joe Biden’s shrinking approval ratings have led many to consider Donald Trump’s likely return to the White House. With promises from reinforcing the Mexican border to restoring the Muslim travel ban, Trump is again the talk of the town.
While Trump speaks of solving the Ukraine war in a day, his fictitious foreign policy wizardry may not be the panacea for the Palestinian conundrum. While in office, Trump subtly shifted the dynamics left over from the Obama administration towards a scenario more advantageous to Israel, dimming the prospects for a two-state solution.
The Trump administration’s inauspicious story included the recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital in December 2017. Several months later in May 2018, the United States moved its embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. David Friedman, who has legally represented Trump, was confirmed as US ambassador to Israel just a year earlier. Friedman supports the illegal Jewish settlements in the West Bank and is vehemently opposed to the two-state solution.
During the 2018-19 Great March of Return, a series of mostly peaceful protests that were forcibly repressed, Israeli forces killed 223 Palestinians, according to Israeli human rights organisation B’Tselem.
Trump’s United Nations ambassador Nikki Haley spoke instead of Hamas using civilians as shields. She reportedly blamed terrorist proxies for causing the violence. The Trump administration eventually left the UN Human Rights Council, citing “chronic bias against Israel” as the rationale behind the decision.
In 2018, aid to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency was slashed by the Trump administration, aiming to coerce Palestinians into acquiescing to its envisioned regional peace plan as well as recognising Jerusalem as Israel’s capital.
Palestinians gather in Ramallah on September 15, 2020, to protest against the normalisation of diplomatic ties between Israel and the United Arab Emirates. Photo: EPA-EFE
Trump’s master stroke consisted of circumventing the Palestinians and signing the Abraham Accords in September 2020. These agreements were signed with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. Sudan and Morocco followed suit months later. The normalisation of Israeli diplomatic ties with these countries happened irrespective of the Palestinian cause and bolstered Israel’s position in the region.
Trump’s speeches or interviews on foreign policy tend to operate as a binary discourse. Firstly, there’s the approach of “If it were me, these things would not have happened,” which often leads him to cite examples from his tenure. Secondly, there’s the magical touch narrative: “When I come in, I will instantly solve XYZ in foreign policy.”
With regard to Israel’s war on Gaza, both these approaches are nothing but classic Trump populism. This doesn’t mean he won’t make things worse for Gaza if re-elected.
In this scenario, a second Trump administration would likely follow a threefold approach. First, provide unconditional and full support to Israel. Second, continue to cement Israel’s legitimacy in the region. And third, force the Palestinian resistance to capitulate. From this perspective, a second Trump term would endorse the hardliners in Israel and enable the deportation of the Palestinians from Gaza.
Using more sticks than carrots, Trump’s transactional approach leaves little room for dialogue or compromise. Hence, one can expect maximum pressure to be exerted on Iran, which is perceived as the funder of Hamas. An increased US military presence in the region to counter Iranian proxies, such as the Houthis, is also likely.
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Israeli forces open fire on crowd of Palestinians seeking aid,, as Gaza death toll surpasses 30,000
Israeli forces open fire on crowd of Palestinians seeking aid,, as Gaza death toll surpasses 30,000
Qatar, which is mediating the release of Israeli captives, could also bear the brunt of a coming Trump presidency. This trajectory could set the scene for a war between Hezbollah and Israel, described by Foreign Policy magazine as becoming inevitable.
Trump could also accelerate the normalisation drive prompted by the Abraham Accords. Riyadh could be key in this strategy. It is worth noting that the Saudi-Israeli normalisation process under Trump’s leadership would not pick up where Biden left off. Instead, Riyadh might demand a far higher price, such as a top-level security guarantee akin to Nato.
It would not settle for a US concession at the level of removing Sudan from the list of terrorist states or recognising Morocco’s claim to Western Sahara. The use of incentives and penalties is crucial in American diplomacy, yet under Trump, any agreement involving Israel would largely hinge on conditions set by the US. Furthermore, it’s unlikely for a leader with a distaste for Nato to extend additional security umbrellas.
If Trump beats Biden and is unencumbered by the pressures of re-election, prospects for addressing the Israeli-Palestinian conundrum – be it curtailing Israel’s broad-scale assaults on civilians or considering pathways to a two-state resolution – seem dim. The actions of his first term suggest a similar trajectory for a potential second term.
Burak Elmali is a researcher at TRT World Research Centre in Istanbul
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