Biden can still win re-election but voters need signs of leadership

US President Joe Biden’s State of the Union address was received positively and shows he can still win against Donald Trump
The president must address tangible issues such as the economy and make longer, more frequent public appearances

Thomas O. Falk

Published: 7:30pm, 14 Mar 2024

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If I had to give one sentence to provide my takeaway for Joe Biden’s State of the Union address last Thursday, it would be: There is life in the old dog, yet!

For far too long, Biden’s public appearances have had the character of a solar eclipse – seldom and short. Indeed, he has given the fewest news conferences of any American president since Ronald Reagan.

The reasons for Biden’s rather sporadic appearances are apparent. He is not a great public speaker and he never has been, even in his younger years. He is a gaffe machine. Recent moments of confusion and a rather suboptimal special counsel’s report only added further fuel to the idea that Biden has lost a step – one that could be decisive in the race against Donald Trump.

One rightfully wonders why Biden’s staff thought that this approach of limited exposure and risk could ever work. It certainly did the trick during the 2020 election cycle but the circumstances differ significantly this time around and it shows. If the election were held tomorrow, Trump would likely win.

I have also been very dubious about Biden’s chances so far though not because of his political record. If I were to provide Biden’s résumé without his name on it, most politically astute observers would concur that he has perhaps been the most consequential first-term president since Reagan.

But perception is reality in modern politics. Thanks to unfortunate public mishaps and the inability to communicate his success effectively thus far, Biden is not perceived as a modern Reagan but rather as Jimmy Carter 2.0 and he faces the same fate as the latter.

A visitor tours the Jimmy Carter National Historical Park in Plains, Georgia, US on September 30 last year. Now seeking re-election, Joe Biden has increasingly been compared to Carter, the last Democratic president to lose his re-election bid. Photo: The Atlanta Journal-Constitution / TNS

This is why Biden’s State of the Union address was so important. Granted, there are two ways of looking at the address, which was – outside the right-wing echo chamber – widely perceived as positive. One can surely argue that, for many Americans, the bar was set incredibly low. For as long as Biden did not fall offstage, it would have constituted a successful speech in many people’s eyes.

But while the bar was certainly low, Biden did an outstanding job and showed the United States and the world that he still has what it takes to beat Trump again in November.

He was alive and in attack mode. He addressed the issues Americans care about, such as the economy, immigration, and freedom. He called out the threat his predecessor poses, sparred with heckling Republicans, felt comfortable and was fully in charge during the entire speech.

However, the key now is to use the State of the Union as a springboard. Biden must go out there and be on the attack constantly. He is not facing a conventional challenger so a conventional style cannot be the answer. He must embrace his age as well as the wisdom and experience that come with it.

He must address the press regularly no matter what mistakes he might make, particularly since his opponent is Trump, whose public appearances are not exactly Shakespearean either, to put it mildly.

This reality will only become more apparent to Americans again with the race gaining national attention now that the primaries have effectively wrapped up. Most Americans do not follow politics that closely. Many will have forgotten about how abysmal the Trump presidency was and perhaps even how he was willing to overthrow a fair election to stay in power.

One can thus assume that the hotter this race becomes, the more Americans will be reminded of the carnage between 2016 and 2020. Biden can be the beneficiary if he presents himself as a strong and reliable leader – just like he did on Thursday – and the current subpar polls could soon reflect this.

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However, to be successful, Biden’s message going forward must be more than about saving democracy and beating Russia. While both points are pivotal, he will have to produce something more tangible that makes a difference to average Americans in rural areas across the republic.

Issues such as the economy, crime or immigration are among the deciding factors with voters. These issues have to be addressed accordingly. Biden recently visited the border to make a stand and not leave the scene to Trump, which was a welcoming sign we are moving in that direction.

There is yet another opening for Biden. He even made it clear during his speech that he is inclined to take full advantage of it when he passionately pledged that he’ll restore Roe vs Wade.

Demonstrators cheer at a rally in Washington, DC on July 9, 2022 after Biden signed an executive order intended to preserve access to abortion following a Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade. Photo: Bloomberg

Ever since the US Supreme Court ended the constitutional right to abortion, the Republican Party faces a major self-made election liability that was already witnessed during the previous midterm elections.

What seemed like a win for Trump – appointing three conservative Supreme Court justices – could now backfire, particularly since Trump has always struggled to attract women voters. The Supreme Court’s decision will cast an even bigger shadow on the prospects of attracting them this time around, especially if the alternative is a Democratic president who vows to restore abortion rights.

The election is by no means over. If Biden has it in him to become a risk-taker, to take the gloves off and to show Americans that he is not merely the lesser evil but a formidable commander-in-chief, he can and will beat Trump again.

Thomas O. Falk is a journalist and political analyst who writes about German, British, and US politics