Opinion | How Russian nuclear threats over Ukraine are pushing Europe to make peace with China

Europe’s growing energy crisis and Putin’s military escalation are making it harder for the West to maintain a united front against China

There is growing recognition that Beijing’s nuanced stance and leverage over Russia make it an ideal peace broker, and that economic engagement best ensures Europe’s stability and future

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Published: 3:30am, 27 Sep 2022Updated: 4:25am, 27 Sep 2022

In a major escalation of Europe’s crisis, Russian President Vladimir Putin has approved military mobilisation for the first time since the end of World War II. By drawing on hundreds of thousands of reservists, Putin hopes to change Russia’s fortunes after major military setbacks in Ukraine.

He also expressed support for referendums in the Russian-occupied Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia provinces, paving the way for a larger Russian federation. “It is in our historical tradition [...] to stop those […] who threaten the dismemberment and enslavement of our Motherland, our Fatherland,” he said. Putin’s warning raised the prospect of a nuclear intervention should Ukrainian forces seek to wrest back control of these breakaway regions.

He justified his decision as part of an existential struggle against the “collective West”, which has supported Kyiv with massive arms and economic aid in recent months. As the energy crisis deepens, Russia’s latest moves are likely to intensify divisions within Europe over the extent of Nato’s participation in the conflict.

Notwithstanding the rise of China hawks in major European capitals, a two-front conflict, with Moscow and Beijing, has become increasingly untenable for many European countries. China’s nuanced position on the Ukraine conflict, its growing leverage over Russia, and deep economic interdependence with the West will continue to shape Europe’s relations with Beijing.

Over the past six months, the West has displayed remarkable unity, imposing sweeping sanctions on Russia and providing state-of-the-art weaponry to Ukraine. Cracks, however, are beginning to appear.

French President Emmanuel Macron, who has been positioning himself as de facto leader of Europe, recently underscored the importance of the “unity of Europe” and warned against “warmongers” among “a few states on our eastern flanks”.