China risks ‘colossal Covid-19 outbreak’ by opening up, study finds
- Peking University mathematicians say lifting travel bans could unleash a flood of cases in the country
- The pressure on the health system would be unbearable, they say
In the report published in China CDC Weekly by the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, the four mathematicians argued that China was not ready and could not afford to lift entry-exit quarantine measures without more efficient vaccinations or specific treatment.
“The estimates revealed the real possibility of a colossal outbreak which would almost certainly put an unbearable burden on the medical system,” the authors said in the report, dated Wednesday.
China’s Covid-19 containment strategy relies on repeated mass mandatory swab testing to identify positive cases each time an infection is found in a new area. Its borders have been closed to most countries since March last year and it has one of the world’s longest quarantine periods.
But the measures take a heavy economic toll and critics question their value, given that China has reported only sporadic outbreaks.
On Saturday, China reported only 25 confirmed cases of Covid-19, of which 20 were imported.