Belarus protests cast shadow over China’s Belt and Road ambitions as Lukashenko refuses to relinquish power

China’s economic presence in Belarus has grown in recent years as it looks to extend its influence in Eurasia and Minsk tries to reduce dependence on Russia

But analysts say anti-government demonstrations that have roiled the Eastern European country could compromise China’s belt and road investments

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President Xi Jinping was among the first to congratulate Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko (right) on his disputed election result. Photo: EPA-EFE

Published: 8:00pm, 19 Aug 2020Updated: 10:26pm, 19 Aug 2020

China’s growing influence in Belarus through its Belt and Road Initiative could be derailed as mass demonstrations triggered by a disputed presidential election grip the Eastern European country, analysts say.

President Alexander Lukashenko claimed a sixth consecutive term on August 9 amid widespread allegations of election fraud, sparking anti-government protests across the country and creating fresh uncertainty for China’s investments.

“If we do see a change of government towards the opposition that would potentially cause a problem for belt and road projects there, especially if the next government begins to tilt more towards the West,” said Marc Lanteigne, associate professor of political science at the University of Tromsø, Norway.

China’s economic presence in Belarus has grown in recent years as it looks to increase its influence throughout Eurasia and Lukashenko has sought a closer relationship with Beijing to offset a historical dependence on Russia.

Belarus is an important component of the Belt and Road [Initiative] … It is seen by China as a potential outlet to the Baltic states and to Eastern Europe

Marc Lanteigne

President Xi Jinping was among the first to congratulate Lukashenko – who is known as the “last dictator in Europe” – while state media have largely been muted over the political turmoil that has roiled its strategic partner.

“Belarus is an important component of the Belt and Road [Initiative] … It is seen by China as a potential outlet to the Baltic states and to Eastern Europe,” said Lanteigne. “China was very active in engaging with the government of Belarus in projects that would eventually be folded into the [plan].”

Among the most important Chinese investments is the Great Stone Industrial Park, located 25km from the capital Minsk. Construction on the US$2 billion hi-tech industrial project started in 2014 and has been described by Xi as “a pearl” on the overland Silk Road Economic Belt.

China’s total foreign direct investment in Belarus grew to US$450.3 million in 2019, according to the National Bank of the Republic of Belarus, substantially lower than the country’s main trade partner Russia, which spent US$4.5 billion.