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Belarus protests cast shadow over China’s Belt and Road ambitions as Lukashenko refuses to relinquish power
- China’s economic presence in Belarus has grown in recent years as it looks to extend its influence in Eurasia and Minsk tries to reduce dependence on Russia
- But analysts say anti-government demonstrations that have roiled the Eastern European country could compromise China’s belt and road investments
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China’s growing influence in Belarus through its Belt and Road Initiative could be derailed as mass demonstrations triggered by a disputed presidential election grip the Eastern European country, analysts say.
President Alexander Lukashenko claimed a sixth consecutive term on August 9 amid widespread allegations of election fraud, sparking anti-government protests across the country and creating fresh uncertainty for China’s investments.
“If we do see a change of government towards the opposition that would potentially cause a problem for belt and road projects there, especially if the next government begins to tilt more towards the West,” said Marc Lanteigne, associate professor of political science at the University of Tromsø, Norway.
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China’s economic presence in Belarus has grown in recent years as it looks to increase its influence throughout Eurasia and Lukashenko has sought a closer relationship with Beijing to offset a historical dependence on Russia.
Belarus is an important component of the Belt and Road [Initiative] … It is seen by China as a potential outlet to the Baltic states and to Eastern Europe
President Xi Jinping was among the first to congratulate Lukashenko – who is known as the “last dictator in Europe” – while state media have largely been muted over the political turmoil that has roiled its strategic partner.
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