China GDP: first quarter growth tipped to jump above 20 per cent following historic contraction last year
- China’s first quarter economic growth rate is forecast to be above 20 per cent from a year earlier, following a 6.8 per cent contraction in the first three months of 2020
- But China’s unbalanced recovery from the coronavirus pandemic remains at risk and growth for the January-March period is expected to the year’s highest
China’s first quarter growth figures this year could exceed 20 per cent from a year earlier, a record high that offers fresh evidence of the robust rebound in the world’s second largest economy and its central position in driving the global recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.
The growth rate is also expected to be this year’s peak, as China’s economic engine cools and other major economies like the United States roar back to life. Moreover, the unbalanced nature of China’s recovery – which has been dependent on exports and state-led investment – remains at risk, analysts have warned.
Song Xuetao, head of the macro research division at Tianfeng Securities, estimated that first quarter GDP growth would jump to 20.5 per cent from a year ago, following disruptions due to the pandemic early in 2020 and a cold winter.
China is one quarter ahead of the global economic recovery
Zhong Zhengsheng, chief economist at Ping An Securities, forecast earlier this month a 21 per cent growth rate, since both production and consumer demand were gaining steam.